India Oil Imports: Russia Sustains Supply Amid US Sanctions

Published: 13 January 2026. The English Chronicle Desk. The English Chronicle Online.

Russia is actively seeking ways to bypass US sanctions to ensure India continues importing affordable Russian oil, analysts report. The focus on India oil imports has intensified as the nation relies heavily on discounted Russian crude following Western sanctions tied to the Ukraine conflict. The ongoing situation has sparked tensions between Washington and New Delhi, with the US repeatedly urging India to reduce its dependency on Russian energy. Industry experts caution that these sanctions might not fully disrupt the flow of cheap oil, with Russia already exploring new supply chain mechanisms.

Since the Ukraine war began, India has become the second largest purchaser of Russian crude oil worldwide. Discounts on Russian oil have been substantial, reflecting the impact of Western penalties designed to limit Moscow’s energy revenues. In 2025, India imported an average of 1.7 million barrels of Russian oil per day, primarily sourced from Rosneft and Lukoil. Despite the US introducing sanctions in late November targeting these major exporters, India’s imports fell only modestly to 1.2 million barrels daily in December, a decrease of roughly a third. Analysts warn this decline may be temporary as Russia seeks alternative strategies to maintain its energy sales to India.

Tensions escalated last August when the Trump administration imposed a 25% tariff on Indian imports linked to Russian oil purchases. India resisted, emphasizing its sovereign right to determine energy policies without external interference. The two countries’ trade talks failed to yield agreements, prompting the US to increase pressure with threats of a 500% tariff and potential withdrawal from India-led global initiatives. Despite these measures, India has continued sourcing Russian oil, highlighting the strategic importance of discounted crude in its energy portfolio.

Industry sources suggest that Russia has already begun reorganizing its oil supply chain to circumvent sanctions. A key loophole allows shipments handled by companies other than Rosneft or Lukoil to escape US penalties. Data indicates new Russian exporters emerged by December, likely acting as intermediaries to channel crude to India while avoiding sanctions. Homayoun Falakshahi, Kpler’s head crude oil analyst, noted that these developments suggest Russia is proactively reshaping its supply routes. “It’s only a matter of months before most barrels are supplied by companies not targeted by the sanctions,” he said.

Four of India’s seven largest refineries continue to rely heavily on Russian crude, illustrating the challenge of reducing dependence. Low oil prices make it economically compelling for India to continue imports, with discounts of $9–$10 per barrel compared to Saudi or Iraqi oil. Falakshahi estimates that the savings from Russian crude could reach $4 billion annually, making it a significant incentive for public sector refiners to resume previous purchase levels.

June Goh, senior analyst at Sparta Commodities, emphasized that market reactions reinforce this outlook. Initial oil price surges following sanctions have since eased, reflecting skepticism that enforcement will substantially impact India’s imports. Private companies face different pressures; Reliance Industries, India’s largest private refiner, ceased Russian oil purchases in November to comply with US and EU sanctions. The company is exploring alternative supplies, potentially from Venezuela, in coordination with the US. Analysts suggest that Reliance’s cautious approach balances regulatory compliance with the need to secure affordable crude for domestic refining and exports.

The geopolitical implications extend beyond trade, highlighting how sanctions can be circumvented when economic incentives are strong. Russia’s efforts to maintain India oil imports exemplify the creative strategies employed to sustain revenue streams under international pressure. The situation underscores the challenges of enforcing global sanctions in a complex energy market, where national priorities often outweigh external influence. Analysts expect that, as new Russian exporters establish themselves, India will likely see its crude imports stabilize, continuing its reliance on discounted Russian oil despite ongoing diplomatic tensions.

Observers also note that the evolving supply chains may influence global oil dynamics, with India’s demand shaping Russian export strategies. As the world watches closely, the balance between sanction enforcement and market realities remains delicate. India’s decision-making reflects a pragmatic approach, prioritizing energy security and economic efficiency over external political pressures. The interplay of sanctions, alternative suppliers, and market adaptation highlights the resilience of oil trade networks under duress.

While Western sanctions aimed to disrupt Russia’s financial inflows, the measures have encountered immediate practical limitations. The emergence of intermediary exporters allows Russia to maintain access to its key energy buyers, notably India. Analysts caution that any long-term reduction in Russian oil sales to India would require more comprehensive coordination and enforcement mechanisms than currently exist. In the meantime, India continues to benefit from affordable oil while navigating a complex web of international diplomacy and market forces.

Russia’s strategic maneuvers to bypass sanctions underscore the ongoing tug-of-war between geopolitical objectives and economic realities. India’s reliance on discounted Russian oil highlights the tension between national interests and international policy pressures. Energy security concerns, combined with the economic benefits of low-cost crude, suggest India will maintain its current import trajectory, supported by Russia’s adaptive supply chain strategies. The unfolding situation demonstrates that while sanctions can influence markets, their effectiveness is often contingent upon enforcement capabilities and the willingness of countries to seek alternatives.

The coming months will reveal whether new Russian exporters fully replace sanctioned entities, allowing India to resume previous import volumes. Analysts expect the restructured supply chain to stabilize the market for Indian refiners, ensuring continued access to cost-effective Russian oil. Strategic adjustments by both Russia and India highlight the complexity of global energy trade in a politically charged environment, where economic incentives often outweigh regulatory mandates. The long-term outcome may set a precedent for how nations navigate sanctions while securing essential resources for domestic needs.

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