UK immigration perception weakens trust despite falling arrivals

Published: 11 January 2026. The English Chronicle Desk. The English Chronicle Online.

Public understanding of migration trends in Britain appears increasingly disconnected from official data, as new polling reveals widespread misperception among voters. The UK immigration perception gap has become striking, with most voters believing arrivals are rising despite clear statistical declines. This divergence between reality and belief is now shaping political trust, public debate, and government strategy across the country.

Exclusive polling conducted by More in Common shows that nearly two-thirds of voters think immigration has increased over the past year. This belief persists even though net migration figures have fallen sharply to their lowest post-pandemic level. The findings underline how deeply ingrained attitudes can override evidence, particularly on issues charged with emotion and identity.

According to the Office for National Statistics, net migration dropped by more than two-thirds in the year ending June 2025. The figure fell from a record peak of 944,000 in early 2023 to around 204,000. Despite this substantial change, 67 percent of respondents said they believed immigration had grown. Among supporters of Reform UK, that figure rose even higher, reflecting strong scepticism about official narratives.

The polling also highlights collapsing confidence in the government’s ability to manage borders effectively. Three-quarters of voters reported little or no trust in the current administration’s handling of migration. Only 18 percent expressed confidence, marking a further decline from the previous year. For a government that has prioritised tougher rhetoric and policy action, the results represent a sobering challenge.

Labour’s leadership had hoped that stricter measures would reassure voters concerned about border control. Since entering office, ministers have emphasised enforcement, deterrence, and structural reform. However, the persistence of the UK immigration perception problem suggests that policy shifts alone may not change public opinion quickly.

Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood outlined what she described as the most significant asylum reform in a generation. Proposed measures include longer pathways to citizenship for refugees, tighter rules on family reunification, and the potential confiscation of assets from some asylum applicants. Refugees could also face return if conditions improve in their countries of origin. These proposals have sparked intense debate within Parliament and beyond.

Several Labour MPs have voiced concern that such policies risk alienating core supporters while failing to win over sceptical voters. Critics argue that mimicking hardline positions associated with populist parties could normalise divisive narratives. Supporters within government counter that firm action is necessary to restore credibility on migration management.

Luke Tryl, executive director of More in Common, described the situation as a growing credibility gap. He argued that falling numbers alone are insufficient to shift attitudes once distrust has taken root. Without rebuilding confidence, he warned, migration would remain a persistent political headache regardless of statistical improvements.

Public concern appears heavily shaped by the visibility of small boat crossings across the Channel. Images of arrivals have become symbolic of broader anxieties about borders, even though they represent a small fraction of overall migration. In 2025, about 43,000 people arrived by small boats, an increase from the previous year but still below the 2022 peak.

Those arriving via small boats accounted for less than five percent of all people entering the UK during the period. Yet polling shows that 79 percent of voters want the government to prioritise stopping these crossings. Only a minority believe reducing legal migration should be the main focus, highlighting how perception often outweighs proportional impact.

Marley Morris from the Institute for Public Policy Research noted that public opinion often lags behind reality. He suggested that attitudes might gradually adjust if lower migration levels persist. However, he also acknowledged that entrenched beliefs are difficult to reverse, especially when reinforced by years of heated debate and media attention.

Further complicating matters, fewer than one in five voters credited the current government when presented with accurate migration data. A similar proportion attributed the decline to policies enacted by the previous Conservative administration. This diffusion of credit illustrates how difficult it is for governments to claim success on politically sensitive issues.

Visa data reinforces the scale of recent changes. Applications for skilled worker visas fell by more than a third during 2025, while health and care visas dropped by over half. These reductions have raised concerns among employers, particularly within the NHS and social care sectors, which rely heavily on overseas staff.

Migration Minister Mike Tapp defended the government’s approach, stating that lower numbers demonstrate progress in restoring order to the system. He argued that prioritising domestic workers while tightening overseas recruitment was beginning to deliver results. According to Tapp, net migration is now at its lowest level in half a decade.

However, some Labour MPs remain uneasy. Kim Johnson, representing Liverpool Riverside, warned that hardline messaging risks fuelling racism and exacerbating workforce shortages. She argued that declining work visas could push health and social care services toward crisis, undermining economic stability and public wellbeing.

Johnson called for a more positive vision of migration, one that recognises the contribution of those who move to Britain to work, study, and build families. She cautioned that divisive rhetoric may backfire electorally, strengthening support for Reform rather than weakening it. Her comments reflect broader tensions within Labour about balancing control with compassion.

The UK immigration perception dilemma sits at the intersection of policy, trust, and communication. While the data points to a significant reduction in arrivals, public belief tells a different story. This gap highlights the limits of statistics in reshaping narratives once confidence has eroded.

Analysts suggest that sustained transparency, consistent messaging, and visible outcomes will be essential to closing this divide. Without them, migration is likely to remain a defining and destabilising issue in British politics. As voters head toward future elections, perception may prove just as influential as reality.

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