Shutting North Sea Oil Production Could Increase Global Carbon Emissions

Published: 19 February 2026. The English Chronicle Desk. The English Chronicle Online

A new debate has erupted over the future of North Sea oil and gas production after experts warned that ending extraction in the UK could paradoxically increase global carbon emissions rather than reduce them. A discussion paper from the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) argues that policies aimed at phasing out North Sea fossil fuel production under net‑zero goals and punitive windfall taxes on producers will lead to higher overall emissions because the UK would need to import more oil and gas from overseas suppliers whose production is often more carbon‑intensive. According to the report, this so‑called “carbon offshoring” effect could increase global emissions by about 50 % compared with sourcing energy domestically.

The IEA paper also claims that shrinking North Sea output is already causing a decline in investment and jobs, and that relying on imports could weaken energy security as well as environmental outcomes. It warns that without a sensible transition, domestic policy could unintentionally push production to regions with less stringent environmental standards, where fossil fuels are extracted and transported with higher emissions.

Supporters of maintaining stronger North Sea production argue that UK‑based extraction — even as the basin naturally declines — ensures higher regulatory oversight of emissions and reduces the need for long‑distance transport of fuel molecules. They contend that North Sea infrastructure can also support carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects and other transitional technologies, making the region a potential hub for lower‑carbon solutions as the world moves toward net‑zero goals.

Critics of continued extraction, however, emphasise that burning fossil fuels — wherever they are produced — contributes directly to climate change, and that phasing out oil and gas is essential to meeting global emissions targets and keeping warming under control. They argue that investment should shift rapidly toward renewable energy, energy‑efficiency measures, and technologies such as offshore wind, hydrogen, and expanded CCS capacity, rather than prolonging reliance on hydrocarbons.

The striking claim that shutting the North Sea could worsen global carbon outcomes has become a focal point in broader discussions about the UK’s energy strategy, balancing climate commitments, economic impacts on coastal communities, and the complex realities of global energy markets as nations strive to cut greenhouse gas emissions without compromising energy security or economic stability.

Read More At>>