UK Asylum Reform Risks Rising Homelessness and Backlogs

Published: 10 December 2025. The English Chronicle Desk. The English Chronicle Online.

Shabana Mahmood’s proposals to radically overhaul the UK asylum system may create “unintended consequences,” including rising homelessness among refugees and increasing backlogs, a Whitehall watchdog has warned.

The National Audit Office (NAO) highlighted that the home secretary’s plans, aimed at speeding up case decisions and limiting appeals, require careful management of bottlenecks to succeed. Without addressing systemic pressures, auditors cautioned, the reforms could worsen existing strains on housing and local services.

The NAO report, published on Wednesday, revealed that officials lack critical data, such as the number of asylum seekers not claiming benefits or the number of rejected claimants who have absconded. This absence of information, auditors said, undermines the government’s ability to manage the asylum process effectively.

Auditors also found that “short-term, reactive measures” over many years have shifted pressures rather than resolving them, leaving numerous claims unresolved for prolonged periods. Over half of individuals who applied for asylum almost three years ago are still awaiting a decision, the report stated.

The findings follow Mahmood’s proposals, modelled on Denmark’s strict immigration policies, which provoked a political backlash. Labour MPs and peers criticised plans allowing deportation of children with their parents and quadrupling the waiting period for refugees to gain permanent residency from five to twenty years.

While the report acknowledged that accelerating decisions and removals could ease pressure on the asylum system, it described the process as “complex” and dependent on the flow of both people and casework. “Otherwise, there is a risk of unintended consequences for already stretched systems, as well as for wider government priorities such as homelessness,” the NAO warned.

Gareth Davies, head of the NAO, noted that previous attempts to reform the asylum system often lacked long-term focus and failed to address core inefficiencies. “Implementing the new asylum model successfully will require effective action on bottlenecks using better-quality data and streamlined decision-making,” he said.

The report found Home Office data gaps hindered efficiency. Officials could not provide numbers of asylum seekers not receiving state support, absconded claimants, those subject to enforcement action, or causes behind unsuccessful removals. Similarly, the Ministry of Justice lacked comprehensive figures on tribunal cases and repeated appeals.

The NAO estimated asylum system spending in 2024-25 at £4.9 billion, with £3.4 billion allocated to accommodation and support. It recommended that the government, by the end of 2026, present a strategic plan to implement the new asylum model and publish system indicators for asylum seekers, taxpayers, and citizens.

Officials were also urged to develop a long-term data blueprint to improve quality, ensure interventions are evidence-based, and provide cost-benefit analysis alongside evaluation plans.

Enver Solomon, chief executive of the Refugee Council, said delays and inefficiencies in the asylum system were leaving councils under-resourced and costs rising. “The NAO’s finding that more than half of applicants from almost three years ago still don’t have an outcome is shocking,” he said. “Only a whole-system approach with timely decisions, proper data, and sufficient capacity will resolve the chaos.”

A Home Office spokesperson defended the reforms, noting nearly 50,000 removals of people without the right to remain, a 63% rise in illegal working arrests, and over 21,000 prevented small boat crossings this year. “Our reforms will restore order, deter illegal entry, and increase removals of those with no right to be here,” the spokesperson said.

The NAO’s report underscores the delicate balance the government must strike between reforming asylum processes and avoiding severe social consequences. Failure to adequately manage the system risks worsening homelessness, prolonging uncertainty for refugees, and undermining public confidence. Analysts stress that only through coordinated long-term planning and reliable data can the reforms achieve their intended outcomes.

As the debate over asylum policy continues, the pressure remains on the government to ensure that reforms are both humane and administratively effective. Lawmakers, local authorities, and advocacy groups will closely monitor the rollout to ensure that policy ambitions do not inadvertently exacerbate the hardships faced by some of the UK’s most vulnerable populations.