US LNG Threatens EU and UK Energy Security Under Trump

Published: 21 January 2026. The English Chronicle Desk. The English Chronicle Online.

Donald Trump’s growing influence over EU and UK energy supply has sparked concern across Europe, a study reveals. The report highlights how Europe’s shift from Russian pipeline gas to US liquified natural gas (LNG) has inadvertently strengthened Trump’s leverage. Analysts warn that this dependency creates significant risks, especially given the US president’s increasingly protectionist and ideologically driven policies.

The study, co-authored by the Clingendael Institute in The Hague, the Ecologic Institute in Berlin, and the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, documents a sharp rise in American LNG imports to Europe. It explains that after Russia faced sanctions following its invasion of Ukraine, European countries sought alternative gas supplies, effectively turning to the US. This move, while initially intended to secure energy stability, now leaves the EU and UK highly exposed to US policy decisions.

Data from December 2025 show that imports of US LNG into the European Economic Area, which includes the 27 EU states plus Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway, surged by 61% last year. Compared with 2019, this represents a dramatic 485% increase, with US LNG now constituting 59% of total EU LNG imports.

The UK, outside the European single market, shares similar vulnerabilities. In 2024, the country met 50% of its gas demand through domestic production, 33% from EEA imports, and the remaining via LNG shipments, 68% of which came from the US. Analysts note that this reliance mirrors that of continental Europe, emphasizing the interconnected nature of European energy security.

Professor Kacper Szulecki of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs said Europe must carefully consider its dependence on US energy. “We have to acknowledge the new reality of Donald Trump’s American energy dominance and look at Europe’s imports cautiously,” Szulecki stated. He explained that the US national security strategy of 2025 frames energy exports explicitly as a tool to project power, echoing the Reagan-era attempts to influence European energy markets.

Concerns extend beyond supply alone. Current EU gas reserves are at their lowest levels in years, lower even than at the start of the war in Ukraine. Experts warn that any intensification of US-EU tensions or a harsh winter could dramatically increase energy prices, potentially triggering a severe crisis across Europe and the UK.

Recent Trump actions have heightened these worries. He has threatened tariffs against European allies to secure political concessions, including his pursuit of Greenland, part of Denmark, an EU member state and NATO ally. The EU has considered retaliatory measures, yet analysts note that options remain limited due to the current reliance on American gas.

Raffaele Piria, senior researcher at the Ecologic Institute and a lead author of the study, emphasized that the UK faces the same vulnerabilities as the EU. “The UK is physically and economically integrated into the European gas grid, making it as exposed as its continental neighbors,” Piria said. He added that historical assumptions about US non-interference in gas markets are no longer valid in today’s geopolitical environment.

The report argues that Europe must rethink its long-term energy strategy. It recommends accelerating the transition to renewable and indigenous energy sources to reduce reliance on external powers, particularly the US, and mitigate geopolitical leverage risks. Analysts stress that while short-term supply is secured through LNG, long-term energy independence is essential to avoid strategic vulnerabilities.

The study’s authors conclude that Europe is navigating a precarious balance. Dependence on US LNG provides immediate relief from Russian supply shortages, but it simultaneously places Europe and the UK under Trump’s increasing influence. Policymakers are urged to consider both immediate security needs and strategic autonomy, particularly in light of Trump’s explicit use of energy exports as a geopolitical tool.

In summary, the growing dominance of US LNG in Europe underscores the need for careful energy planning. While the EU and UK have temporarily secured gas supply, analysts warn that political leverage exerted by the US could have profound economic and security consequences. Europe’s challenge is to manage this dependence while accelerating the development of domestic renewable energy systems to reduce future vulnerabilities.

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