Inflation Latest: Cost of Living Expected to Rise Again in Key Figures Released Today

Published: 20 August 2025 | The English Chronicle Desk

The cost of living crisis in the United Kingdom is expected to deepen further as economists predict new inflation figures, due to be released this morning, will show another increase in consumer prices. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is set to confirm the July data at 7am, with many analysts forecasting a sharper rise than previously recorded.

According to market expectations, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation rate is likely to have climbed to 3.7 per cent in July, up from 3.6 per cent in June. The anticipated rise, while modest, reflects the persistent pressure on households as everyday expenses remain high.

A combination of factors has been highlighted as key contributors to the sustained inflationary trend. Food prices, already elevated for much of the year, showed little sign of easing, keeping supermarket bills at stubbornly high levels. The timing of the school summer holidays added to the strain, with travel and leisure costs rising as families took advantage of the break.

The Bank of England has consistently pointed to energy and food costs as central to the inflation challenge, while other economists have argued that government policy has also played a role. In particular, the increase in employers’ national insurance contributions introduced in April has been cited by some commentators as indirectly pushing consumer prices higher, as businesses pass additional costs on to customers.

Hotel and accommodation prices are also thought to have spiked in July, further feeding into the headline inflation figure. Analysts note that seasonal demand, especially during peak holiday travel, often inflates hospitality costs and places further burden on household budgets.

In addition to the CPI data, the ONS will also release the Retail Prices Index (RPI) for July. Banking group Investec has forecast the figure at 4.5 per cent, a number that could have significant implications for millions of commuters. Under government policy, annual rail fare increases are typically linked to the July RPI rate, meaning fares could rise by as much as 5.5 per cent next year.

The figures will be closely watched by policymakers at the Bank of England, who are under mounting pressure to balance the need to tame inflation without stifling growth. Households, meanwhile, continue to feel the squeeze of rising living costs, with many families already struggling to cope with elevated food, fuel and housing expenses.

While the expected increase may appear slight, it underscores a broader trend that has left little room for financial relief. As the cost of living crisis shows few signs of easing, the July data will once again reignite debate about the government’s response, monetary policy decisions, and the longer-term economic outlook for the UK.