Labour Falls to Fourth in Poll, Faces Historic Election Loss

Published: 07 November 2025. The English Chronicle Desk. The English Chronicle Online.

Labour has plummeted to fourth place in a new nationwide opinion poll, raising concerns that the party is on course for its worst general election result in over a century. The survey, conducted among 2,717 adults, indicates that support for Sir Keir Starmer’s party has fallen to just 15 per cent, trailing behind Reform UK, the Green Party, and even the Conservatives in some regions.

The results mark a dramatic shift in the political landscape of the United Kingdom. In recent months, Labour has struggled to maintain its footing amid growing support for newer parties. Reform UK, led by former Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage, has surged in popularity, with the poll suggesting the party could win 386 seats if the election were held tomorrow—enough for a commanding overall majority. Meanwhile, the Greens, under the recently elected leadership of Zack Polanski, have overtaken Labour in several surveys, securing 55 seats in cities and university towns, including seats currently held by high-profile Labour MPs such as Emily Thornberry in Islington South and Finsbury, and Louise Haigh in Sheffield Heeley.

The Liberal Democrats, long considered a centrist alternative, would take 73 seats and emerge as the official opposition to Mr. Farage’s Reform UK, while the SNP would secure 46 seats in Scotland. Labour, by contrast, would be reduced to the fourth-largest party in the House of Commons with just 25 seats—a catastrophic collapse for a party that has dominated British politics for much of the past century. Even the Conservatives, traditionally one of the two major parties, would secure only 17 seats under this scenario, illustrating a historic shake-up of the UK’s political order.

The results are the latest in a series of polls highlighting Labour’s difficulties, particularly in the wake of Zack Polanski’s leadership of the Greens. Since his election in September, the Greens have consistently outperformed Labour, marking a significant challenge to the traditional party system. Polanski, who identifies as an “eco-populist,” has cultivated a distinctive public image, previously making headlines for unconventional claims such as suggesting women could influence breast size through mental exercises—a statement that has drawn widespread attention and scrutiny.

Polanski won the leadership ballot after overcoming a joint challenge from Adrian Ramsay and Ellie Chowns. His victory has energized the party’s base, particularly among younger voters and those prioritizing climate change and wealth redistribution. In a recent interview on BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg, Polanski defended the Greens’ proposals for a wealth tax, arguing that it is primarily aimed at reducing deep societal inequalities rather than funding public investment. “Whatever you’re going to create from a wealth tax, it’s ultimately about reducing inequality,” he stated. “This isn’t about creating public investment. We can do that anyway, we don’t need to tax the wealthy to do that. This is ultimately about tackling the deep inequality in our society.”

Labour’s decline is being attributed to a combination of leadership challenges, policy positioning, and internal party dynamics. Analysts note that Sir Keir Starmer’s attempts to balance traditional Labour values with a broader electoral appeal may have left the party appearing directionless to voters. The erosion of Labour support is particularly pronounced among younger voters, urban constituencies, and those concerned with progressive issues such as climate change and social justice—areas where the Greens have gained traction.

The implications of the poll extend beyond seat numbers. A Labour collapse of this magnitude could fundamentally reshape British politics, accelerating the rise of smaller parties and increasing voter fragmentation. The dominance of Reform UK and the Greens in key constituencies signals a growing appetite for alternatives to the two-party system, reflecting broader societal changes and shifting priorities among the electorate. Political commentators have suggested that if these trends continue, the next general election may witness unprecedented levels of volatility, with traditional party loyalties increasingly unreliable.

Labour’s internal response to the poll has been measured but urgent. Senior figures within the party have emphasized the need to reconnect with grassroots supporters and reaffirm policy priorities that resonate with voters. Some insiders have called for a renewed focus on economic issues, public services, and social equality, arguing that failure to address core voter concerns has contributed to the recent slump. Others point to the necessity of a more visible leadership presence in local constituencies, particularly in areas where the Greens and Reform UK are gaining ground.

The Labour decline also raises questions about the future of party strategy in Scotland and Northern England, regions historically critical to Labour’s electoral success. With the SNP performing strongly in Scotland and Reform UK making gains in former industrial heartlands, Labour faces the dual challenge of retaining existing support while attempting to attract new voters in competitive constituencies. The party’s ability to adapt its messaging and policies to these changing dynamics will likely be a determining factor in its performance in the next general election.

Observers note that the political environment in the UK has shifted considerably since the 2019 general election, with Brexit, economic uncertainty, and climate concerns reshaping voter priorities. In this context, Labour’s traditional messaging may be seen as insufficiently responsive to evolving public sentiment. By contrast, Reform UK has capitalized on nationalist and populist themes, while the Greens have framed their platform around progressive policies and environmental activism, appealing to a younger and more socially conscious demographic.

The emerging political scenario presents both challenges and opportunities. While Labour’s position appears precarious, the party still retains a base of long-standing supporters and significant organizational infrastructure. Political analysts suggest that effective leadership, strategic messaging, and engagement with key constituencies could allow Labour to regain ground, even amid the rise of new political forces. However, failure to address internal divisions, policy clarity, and voter concerns could leave the party marginalized in a rapidly transforming political landscape.

As the UK prepares for the next general election, parties across the spectrum are recalibrating strategies to respond to shifting voter sentiment. Labour’s recent polling results underscore the importance of adaptability, messaging, and grassroots engagement, as well as the increasing influence of smaller parties that can reshape the traditional political order. Whether Labour can reverse the current trend and reconnect with voters remains uncertain, but the stakes could not be higher for a party with a century-long legacy of political influence.