UK glaucoma rise threatens eye health as cases hit 1.6m by 2060

Published: 21 January 2026. The English Chronicle Desk. The English Chronicle Online.

The UK glaucoma rise is emerging as a serious long-term public health concern, according to new expert-backed research. Fresh projections warn that at least 1.6 million people across the United Kingdom could be living with glaucoma by 2060, compared with current estimates of just over one million. Specialists describe the trend as a demographic timebomb, driven by population ageing and widening ethnic diversity, which together are expected to place unprecedented pressure on eye health services nationwide.

The UK glaucoma rise has been highlighted in new analysis published in the British Journal of Ophthalmology. Researchers from University College London and Moorfields Eye Hospital used updated census data and population forecasts to reassess the scale of the condition. Their findings suggest glaucoma is already more widespread than previously believed, with many cases remaining undiagnosed until irreversible damage has occurred.

Glaucoma is recognised as the leading cause of irreversible blindness worldwide. The condition damages the optic nerve, disrupting the vital connection between the eye and the brain. Unlike many eye diseases, glaucoma typically progresses slowly and without early symptoms. This silent nature often delays diagnosis until vision loss becomes noticeable, by which time damage cannot be reversed.

Experts say the UK glaucoma rise reflects profound demographic changes unfolding across the country. The UK population is ageing rapidly, with a growing proportion of people living well into their eighties and beyond. Age is one of the strongest risk factors for glaucoma, making this shift particularly significant. At the same time, the UK’s increasingly diverse population includes groups known to face higher glaucoma risk, especially people of African descent.

Using the most recent census data, researchers estimate that more than three percent of people over forty in the UK currently have glaucoma. Among individuals of African heritage, prevalence rises to around four percent. In people aged over eighty-five, the figure reaches an estimated eleven percent. These statistics underline the scale of the challenge already facing eye care services.

Until recently, it was widely believed that around 700,000 people in the UK were living with glaucoma. The new findings suggest that number has been significantly underestimated. More than one million adults are now thought to have the condition, many of whom remain unaware of their diagnosis. This hidden burden is central to concerns surrounding the UK glaucoma rise.

Professor Paul Foster, lead author of the study and a consultant ophthalmic surgeon, stressed that early detection is crucial. He explained that glaucoma often causes no symptoms in its early stages, making regular eye tests essential. Previous research indicates that around half of glaucoma cases in the UK remain undiagnosed, with even higher rates among some ethnic minority communities.

Late diagnosis carries serious consequences. Patients identified at advanced stages face a greater risk of severe sight loss and higher treatment costs. Researchers estimate that over forty percent of glaucoma patients in the UK experience vision impairment that could have been prevented with earlier intervention. Treatments such as eye drops, laser therapy, or surgery can slow or halt disease progression when started promptly.

The projected UK glaucoma rise is based on population forecasts from the Office for National Statistics, which anticipate sustained growth in older age groups over coming decades. By 2060, the number of people living with glaucoma is expected to increase by around sixty percent. This sharp rise will demand substantial expansion in ophthalmology services, including specialist staff, diagnostic equipment, and long-term patient support.

Healthcare leaders warn that without early planning, the system may struggle to cope. Ophthalmology services are already under strain in many regions, with long waiting times for hospital appointments and limited access to specialist care. A significant increase in glaucoma cases could exacerbate these pressures unless investment and workforce planning begin now.

Awareness is another critical factor. Many people remain unaware of glaucoma risks, particularly those in midlife who may not prioritise routine eye checks. Experts emphasise that regular eye examinations can detect subtle changes long before vision is affected. Encouraging annual eye tests from middle age onwards is seen as a key strategy in addressing the UK glaucoma rise.

Targeted awareness campaigns are also being urged to reach underserved and hard-to-reach communities. Research shows that some groups experience delays in diagnosis due to barriers such as limited access to care, lack of awareness, or cultural perceptions about eye health. Addressing these inequalities could significantly reduce preventable vision loss.

Joanne Creighton, chief executive of Glaucoma UK, described the findings as a wake-up call. She noted that many of the one million adults currently estimated to have glaucoma do not know they are affected. Without diagnosis and treatment, they risk losing sight permanently. She warned that the projected increase to 1.6 million cases by 2060 represents a clear demographic timebomb.

Creighton emphasised that preparation must begin immediately. This includes improving access to routine eye testing, strengthening referral pathways, and ensuring specialist services can meet future demand. Support services for people living with glaucoma will also need to expand, as more patients require long-term monitoring and treatment.

The UK glaucoma rise also carries economic implications. Vision loss can affect employment, independence, and quality of life, increasing demand on social care services. Preventing avoidable blindness through early diagnosis is not only a medical priority but also an economic one, reducing long-term healthcare and social costs.

Despite the seriousness of the projections, experts stress that outcomes can be improved with timely action. Advances in diagnostic technology, combined with effective public health messaging, offer opportunities to detect glaucoma earlier than ever before. With proper planning, much of the predicted vision loss could be avoided.

Ultimately, the research paints a clear picture of a growing challenge that cannot be ignored. As the UK population ages and diversifies, glaucoma will affect more families and communities. The choices made now by policymakers, healthcare providers, and individuals will shape how successfully the country responds to the UK glaucoma rise in the decades ahead.

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