Why did US and Israel attack Iran and how long could the war last

Published: April 8, 2026. The English Chronicle Desk.

The English Chronicle Online — Analyzing the catalysts and the clock of a regional firestorm.

WASHINGTON / JERUSALEM / TEHRAN — As the smoke begins to settle over the 14-day ceasefire brokered this Tuesday, the world is looking back at the five weeks that nearly pushed global civilization to the brink. The conflict, which began with the coordinated Operation Epic Fury (US) and Operation Roaring Lion (Israel) on February 28, 2026, was not a sudden accident of history, but the culmination of a “seismic” collapse in diplomacy. For many, the central question remains: what finally pushed the buttons in Washington and Jerusalem, and now that a truce is in place, is the war truly over?

The decision to launch the strikes was driven by a conclusion reached in mid-February that the “diplomatic runway” had officially ended.

The Nuclear ‘Red Line’: Following the failure of the February 2026 indirect talks in Oman, US intelligence reportedly confirmed that Iran was within weeks of achieving a “stable nuclear deterrent.” President Trump’s administration characterized this as an “existential threat” that could no longer be managed through sanctions alone.
The Regime’s ‘Internal Fracture’: Analysts suggest that the US and Israel saw a “window of opportunity” due to the widespread domestic protests and economic instability within Iran in early 2026. They calculated that a decisive strike on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Supreme Leader—who was reportedly killed in the opening salvo—would lead to a “rapid systematic degradation” of the regime’s control.
The Hormuz Leverage: Iran’s increasingly aggressive stance on the Strait of Hormuz, including threats to implement a total blockade, forced a preemptive move to protect 20% of the world’s daily oil supply.

While the Islamabad-brokered ceasefire is currently in effect, the “duration” of this war is a matter of intense debate.

The Optimist’s View (The ‘Short’ War): President Trump has claimed “total and complete victory,” suggesting that the primary military objectives—the destruction of 90% of Iran’s long-range missile launchers and the “annihilation” of its navy—have already been achieved. Under this view, the war is effectively transitioning into a period of high-stakes “enforced peace” and reconstruction.
The Realist’s View (The ‘Extended’ War): Despite the 14-day truce, Iranian remnants and proxy groups have already signaled that “Power Plant Day”—the threat to strike regional energy infrastructure—remains on the table. Experts warn of a “strategic overextension,” where a 14-day pause merely allows both sides to reload for a “Phase II” that could last through the summer of 2026.
The ‘Lebanon Loophole’: Israel has explicitly stated that the ceasefire “does not include Lebanon,” where active strikes against Hezbollah positions continue. This creates a “friction point” that could drag the US and Iran back into direct combat at any moment.

Beyond the battlefield, the “human-centered” cost has already defined 2026. With over a sixth of Lebanon’s population displaced and the global energy market in a “holding pattern” of volatility, the war has reached a psychological ceiling. The “Pakistan Protocol” being discussed this Friday in Islamabad represents a desperate attempt to turn a temporary silence into a permanent solution.

The 14-day clock is now ticking. Whether this period is the beginning of a new regional order or just the “eye of the storm” depends on whether the upcoming talks can address the nuclear “elephant in the room” that diplomacy failed to solve in February.

Read More At>>