Sir John Curtice: Which Issues Will Decide Scotland and Wales Elections

Published: 2  March 2026
The English Chronicle Desk
The English Chronicle Online

As voters in Scotland and Wales prepare to go to the polls on 7 May for devolved parliamentary elections, top polling expert Sir John Curtice says several core issues are shaping how people plan to cast their ballots — and could decide the outcome of both contests. A recent poll conducted for the BBC suggests that concerns over the economy, health and social care and immigration are among the most influential factors on voter intentions in the run‑up to Election Day.

In Scotland, the economic environment remains high on the agenda for many voters, particularly the cost of living and household finances. With lingering inflationary pressures and public debate over taxation and public spending, parties are tailoring their messages on economic security and growth. Health and social care services — particularly the performance of the NHS in Scotland — are also pivotal, with long waiting times and access to services weighing heavily on public opinion.

Immigration is another central theme highlighted by Curtice’s analysis, with voters in both countries ranking it alongside the economy and public services as a defining issue in their decision‑making. While the role of immigration as a campaign focus varies by region, it has emerged repeatedly in polls as a topic of concern for significant segments of the electorate.

The Scottish election is also occurring against a backdrop of shifting political fortunes. Recent local byelection results have signalled challenges to traditional party alignments, with rising support for parties such as the Greens and Reform UK altering the balance of power dynamics and offering alternative platforms on key issues like public spending, climate policy and constitutional questions.

In Wales, cost‑of‑living pressures are similarly at the forefront of voter priorities, with the everyday cost of food, housing and transport featuring prominently in public concerns. Parties contesting the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) elections have responded with policy pledges aimed at stabilising household budgets and improving access to services.

Healthcare remains another priority for Welsh voters. Ahead of the election, Labour has pledged initiatives such as same‑day access to mental health services should it win office, reflecting broader public demand for expanded and more accessible health provision.

Devolution and governance issues also play into the Welsh contest. Structural changes to the Senedd’s electoral system and constituencies — set to be implemented this year — could influence both party strategy and voter perceptions by emphasising debates about the powers and autonomy of the Welsh Parliament.

Sir John Curtice’s analysis underscores that while localised concerns differ between Scotland and Wales, economic security, public services and immigration policy are among the top issues that voters say will determine their choice at the ballot box. Parties that can articulate clear, credible solutions on these fronts may gain a decisive edge as both nations head toward crucial elections in May.

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