The Explosive Fallout of a Broken Alliance Between Thailand and Cambodia

Published: 25 July ‘2025. The English Chronicle Desk | The English Chronicle Online

A simmering regional rivalry has erupted into deadly violence, reigniting memories of past conflict between Thailand and Cambodia. What began as a seemingly isolated landmine explosion along their disputed border has spiraled into a deadly confrontation, with at least 16 people confirmed dead—most of them civilians—as fighting entered its second day.

The two nations have a long and tangled history, marred by territorial disputes and historical grievances. But this latest escalation appears to be fueled not only by long-standing border tensions but also by a dramatic political fallout between once-allied power players: Thailand’s Shinawatra dynasty and Cambodia’s Hun family.

Tensions reached a boiling point on Thursday after the initial landmine incident injured five Thai soldiers. Thai authorities were quick to respond with military force, and by Friday, reports confirmed the deaths of at least 15 Thais and one Cambodian. While the border has long been volatile—marked by deadly clashes in 2008 and 2011—this time the violence comes with a uniquely personal political dimension.

At the heart of the crisis is the abrupt collapse of a decades-long political friendship. Cambodian senior figure Hun Sen—still deeply influential despite handing power to his son Hun Manet—shocked many last month by publicly leaking a private phone call with Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra. In the recording, Paetongtarn was heard addressing Hun Sen familiarly as “uncle” while criticizing one of her own military commanders. The fallout was swift and severe. Paetongtarn, facing public backlash, was suspended as Prime Minister, and now stands on the brink of political expulsion by Thailand’s Constitutional Court.

For observers, the leak marked an astonishing betrayal, not just of a political ally but of a relationship that had weathered decades of mutual support. In 2014, when Thaksin Shinawatra’s sister Yingluck was ousted in a military coup, Hun Sen offered refuge to her political allies. In return, Thailand and Cambodia maintained a delicate but pragmatic cooperation—even in darker corners of regional politics.

Over the years, both countries have quietly collaborated on controversial issues, including the forced repatriation of political dissidents and alleged joint surveillance operations. Last year’s deportation of six Cambodian refugees from Thailand—despite their UN-recognized status—and the mysterious disappearance of Thai activist Wanchalerm Satsaksit in Cambodia, painted a grim picture of that alliance.

But now, with Hun Sen seemingly turning against the Shinawatras, political knives are out. Hun Sen has claimed he possesses secret documents that could implicate Thaksin in offenses as grave as insulting the Thai monarchy—a charge that carries severe legal consequences. In retaliation, Thailand expelled the Cambodian ambassador and recalled its own envoy, signaling a full-blown diplomatic crisis.

Amid this diplomatic breakdown, Thai authorities have launched investigations into influential Cambodian businessmen, linking them to cross-border scam operations and illicit gambling networks. These moves have disrupted billions in annual trade, bringing significant economic strain to both sides. The shared border, once a lifeline of commerce and cultural exchange, is now a flashpoint for military engagement.

The leadership vacuum in both countries is evident. Cambodia’s new Prime Minister, Hun Manet, has yet to step out of his father’s shadow and project authoritative leadership. Thailand’s ruling coalition, dominated by Thaksin’s allies, is grappling with a sluggish economy and increasing international pressure, including looming U.S. tariffs. Weak leadership on both ends has left little room for compromise, allowing nationalist rhetoric and military posturing to fill the void.

Tourism—especially vital to Cambodia—has suffered a steep decline, further exacerbated by fears of cross-border crime and abductions tied to illegal scam centres. Chinese visitors, once the backbone of Cambodia’s tourism economy, have stayed away. Now, with trade frozen and conflict brewing, economic recovery looks increasingly elusive for both nations.

Still, glimmers of resolution remain. Veteran politicians like Hun Sen and Thaksin Shinawatra possess the political savvy to dial back the confrontation—if they choose to do so. Much may depend on how the domestic political calculus plays out in both capitals. As the situation worsens, the region’s attention now turns to ASEAN, whose foundational purpose was to prevent conflicts like these among its member states. The urgency to mediate and de-escalate could not be clearer.

Yet, the fundamental question persists: why did Hun Sen choose this moment to sabotage a once-strategic friendship? Some speculate it was in retaliation for Thailand’s recent crackdown on Cambodian-linked scam operations. Others point to Thaksin’s political comeback and ambition to legalize gambling in Thailand—posing a threat to Cambodia’s lucrative casino industry.

Perhaps, more simply, it was a calculated move by Hun Sen, one of Asia’s most seasoned political operators, to discard an ally no longer useful and rally nationalist sentiment ahead of potential domestic challenges.

Whatever the motive, the consequences are unfolding in real time—on the battlefield, in diplomatic halls, and in the economic corridors of Southeast Asia. The world watches closely, hoping this rupture can be healed before it becomes a regional crisis too large to contain.