Most Tories Expect to Support a Farage-Led Government

Published: 24 November 2025. The English Chronicle Desk. The English Chronicle Online.

A majority of Conservative Party members believe their party will need to prop up a government led by Nigel Farage’s Reform UK after the next general election, according to a new survey conducted by ConHome. The results highlight the deep uncertainty within the Tory rank-and-file as the party faces internal divisions and the prospect of being significantly weakened at the ballot box.

The survey of 590 Conservative members found that 53.9 per cent of respondents believe it is either “highly likely” (15.8 per cent) or “likely” (38.1 per cent) that Farage could become prime minister following the next election. Only a minority dismissed the possibility, suggesting that the political landscape may shift dramatically in the coming years.

When asked what kind of arrangement might be necessary to sustain a Farage-led government, 24.4 per cent favoured a formal coalition with the Conservatives, while 45 per cent believed a confidence-and-supply arrangement between the Tories and Reform UK would be sufficient. Combined, nearly seven out of ten Tory members think their party will be called upon to support Farage in order to maintain stability in Westminster. The remainder largely assumed that Farage could secure a majority independently.

The findings echo ongoing debates within the party about potential strategic alliances. Some senior figures, including former cabinet minister Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg, have indicated that cooperation with Reform UK might be pragmatic, even if controversial. Rees-Mogg has previously called for the two parties to coordinate policies to avoid splitting the vote in key constituencies, though he remains a member of the Conservative Party.

Polling data also suggest that the Conservative Party is facing an existential challenge. Internal surveys circulating among party headquarters indicate that, under current conditions and with Kemi Badenoch as leader, the Tories could win as few as 14 seats if a general election were called immediately. Such figures underscore the gravity of the situation and the potential need to consider alliances or support agreements to remain politically relevant.

Despite the survey’s implications, Badenoch has publicly rejected the idea of any deal with Reform UK. She has emphasised her commitment to defending the party’s policies and warned against compromise with Farage, whose platform she has repeatedly criticised. Reform UK, meanwhile, has rejected collaboration with the Conservatives, framing itself as a distinct alternative and accusing the party of failing to address key voter concerns.

Zia Yusuf, a prominent ally of Farage, dismissed the notion of a Conservative-Reform agreement. Speaking to The Telegraph, he said: “The Tory party is dead. As is being proven in elections around the country, a vote for the Tories is a wasted vote. They will be annihilated again in May and cease to be a national party. Anyone who wants secure borders, the deportation of illegal immigrants, and to keep out the radical left must vote Reform.”

The survey also found that two-thirds of respondents expect more high-profile defections from the Conservative Party before the next election. Recent political shifts provide evidence of this trend, with MP Danny Kruger leaving to join Reform UK, along with former ministers Sir Jake Berry, Dame Andrea Jenkyns, and Nadine Dorries, among others. Observers suggest that if defections continue, the Conservatives could struggle to present a unified message to the electorate, further undermining their chances in contested seats.

Political analysts warn that the implications of the survey go beyond party politics and reflect a wider transformation in the UK’s political landscape. The growth of Reform UK, driven by Nigel Farage’s continued prominence in public life and his party’s focus on immigration, economic reform, and skepticism toward the European Union, has attracted voters who feel disenfranchised by the traditional parties. If the Tories are forced into a support arrangement with Farage, it could alter policy priorities and redefine government strategy.

Some members of the Conservative Party remain divided on how to respond to the rise of Reform UK. While a section sees strategic cooperation as essential to prevent further losses, others perceive it as a betrayal of the party’s core principles and voter base. This internal tension mirrors debates about the party’s direction, leadership choices, and the need to reconnect with grassroots supporters amid declining electoral fortunes.

The survey comes at a politically sensitive moment, with Labour under Keir Starmer attempting to consolidate support and the Liberal Democrats seeking to expand their influence in key constituencies. The fragmentation of the right-of-centre vote raises questions about governance stability and whether new alignments could emerge in Westminster. Political commentators suggest that, if the Tories are weakened to the extent the polls indicate, Farage’s Reform UK could become a kingmaker in future coalition scenarios.

Meanwhile, voters themselves are responding to political uncertainty with caution. Opinion polls indicate that public confidence in traditional parties is declining, with many expressing dissatisfaction over leadership disputes, policy inconsistency, and perceived inability to address pressing issues such as the economy, healthcare, and immigration. Reform UK has positioned itself as an alternative, targeting voter segments disillusioned with the Conservatives’ perceived decline.

Historically, Conservative-Reform cooperation would have been unthinkable, reflecting decades of distinct ideological identity. Yet, the survey suggests a pragmatic reassessment is taking place within the party’s grassroots, recognising that political survival may necessitate compromises previously considered impossible. Should these attitudes persist, they could influence candidate selection, policy negotiation, and election strategy in the run-up to the next general election.

For Kemi Badenoch, the challenge will be balancing party cohesion against the perceived electoral necessity of collaboration or support arrangements with Reform UK. Her public stance against cooperation signals determination to preserve the Conservative brand, but ongoing defections and internal pressure suggest that maintaining control over the party’s direction may be increasingly difficult.

In the broader context, the survey underscores the fragility of the Conservative Party at a time when the UK’s political landscape is undergoing rapid transformation. With reformist movements gaining momentum, traditional party loyalties being tested, and leadership credibility questioned, the next general election could herald profound changes in governance and policy priorities.

While the survey’s results are indicative rather than predictive, they reveal significant concerns among the Conservative membership. Members appear to recognise the reality of a political environment where the Tories may no longer dominate on their own, and strategic decisions regarding alliances or support agreements may be inevitable.

If the party fails to address these challenges, it risks further erosion of its parliamentary representation, loss of voter confidence, and diminished influence in shaping policy. Political observers note that the coming months will be critical in determining whether Badenoch can unite the party, respond to defections, and negotiate a viable position in a fragmented electoral landscape.

The implications of the survey extend beyond internal party politics. They raise important questions about governance stability, potential coalition arrangements, and the ability of elected officials to deliver policy in a highly fragmented environment. For voters, the findings highlight the need to closely monitor party dynamics and electoral outcomes, as shifts in support may have profound consequences for national decision-making.

As the UK prepares for its next election, the interplay between Conservative Party strategy, Reform UK ambitions, and voter sentiment will be pivotal. The survey suggests that grassroots members are increasingly aware of the complexities facing their party and may be willing to accept compromises to ensure political relevance. How leadership responds to these pressures will shape the trajectory of the party, and potentially, the government itself.

While the full impact of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK remains to be seen, the survey indicates that many Conservative members are preparing for a political reality in which their party may need to cooperate with a rival to maintain influence. With defections continuing, voter loyalty uncertain, and election outcomes increasingly unpredictable, the coming months are likely to test the Conservative Party’s adaptability, strategy, and resilience.

The survey’s findings are a stark reminder that traditional political allegiances in the UK are evolving rapidly. The question of whether the Tories will help facilitate a Farage government may soon move from speculation to political necessity, reflecting broader shifts in voter behaviour, party identity, and the dynamics of parliamentary governance.