UK Spending Drops Amid Pre-Budget Uncertainty and Black Friday

Published: 09 December 2025. The English Chronicle Desk. The English Chronicle Online.

UK households reduced their spending at the fastest rate in nearly five years, according to Barclays’ latest survey. The report highlighted that consumers delayed their Christmas shopping as uncertainty surrounding the budget weighed heavily on confidence. Barclays revealed that card spending dropped by 1.1% year on year in November, marking the steepest decline since February 2021.

Despite the slowdown, retailers reported a busy Black Friday, with transaction volumes rising 62.5% above an average day in 2025. Yet, analysis from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) and consultancy KPMG indicated that this year’s Black Friday boost was weaker than usual, reflecting shoppers’ cautious attitudes. Black Friday remains a key indicator for retailers, marking the start of the festive shopping season and offering early insights into consumer demand.

The BRC noted that overall sales in November were modestly higher than the same month in 2024, mainly supported by increased spending on food. Food sales rose by 3%, although this growth lagged behind inflation, which stood at 3.6%. Spending on other products rose only 0.1% year on year, well below the 12-month average of 1.6%, showing broad consumer restraint.

Opposition parties have criticized Chancellor Rachel Reeves, claiming months of speculation prior to the budget on 26 November undermined consumer confidence. Retailers, particularly medium-sized businesses and pub chains, have urged the government to reconsider changes to business rates, which are expected to affect profitability. Barclays also reported a slowdown in pub spending, declining 1.5% in November. Younger adults showed a preference for alcohol-free beverages and activities, with 42% of 18-34-year-olds choosing alcohol-free drinks and 40% opting for alcohol-free leisure options.

The survey revealed that while confidence in the broader economy remained subdued, consumers’ confidence in their personal finances improved slightly. Economic analysts predict that slowing growth, rising unemployment, and challenges faced by high street retailers could influence the Bank of England to reduce interest rates from 4% to 3.75% in its upcoming policy meeting.

There were positive developments for certain sectors, however. Travel agents saw a 10.7% boost on Black Friday, while streaming services and subscriptions grew 3.5%, buoyed by popular shows like Stranger Things and Pluribus. Homeware and upholstery also performed well as households prepared for festive gatherings, whereas fashion sales were dampened by a mild early November, reducing winterwear demand.

Jack Meaning, chief UK economist at Barclays, commented, “Even with Black Friday support, consumer spending remained muted in the final quarter. The question is whether easing interest rates and declining inflation can reverse this trend or if uncertainty will persist into 2026.”

Helen Dickinson, BRC chief executive, added, “Pre-budget jitters curtailed Black Friday’s impact, leaving the month weaker than anticipated. Moving forward, policy measures must prioritise reviving consumer confidence and lowering business costs to enable growth and economic recovery.”

The Barclays survey paints a clear picture of cautious households, highlighting the persistent economic uncertainty in the UK. Retailers and policymakers face the pressing challenge of encouraging consumer activity while navigating inflationary pressures and potential fiscal constraints. With 2025 closing under muted spending conditions, the upcoming year will test the resilience of household budgets and retail strategies alike.