Lib Dems Likely to Outperform Tories in Seat Count, Warns Top Pollster

Published: 06 October 2025. The English Chronicle Desk, English Chronicle Online

Political analyst Sir John Curtice has warned that the Liberal Democrats are on course to win more seats than the Conservative Party in upcoming elections if current polling trends hold, a situation that underscores the shifting dynamics of British politics and the influence of the country’s electoral system. Speaking at a fringe panel event held during the Conservative Party conference in Manchester, Sir John provided a candid assessment of the challenges facing the Tories as they attempt to rebuild their electoral fortunes.

Curtice, a highly respected authority on voting patterns and public opinion, told attendees that the Conservative Party needed to focus on consolidating its core base before even considering a return to government. Using the metaphor of mountaineering, he suggested that the party must first reach “base camp” before it can contemplate scaling the “Himalayas” of winning back power.

Recent polling data from YouGov shows the Liberal Democrats at 15% nationally, just behind the Conservatives at 16%, while Reform UK leads with 29%. Curtice emphasised that the geographical distribution of the Lib Dem vote gives them a structural advantage under the current first-past-the-post system, likely allowing them to secure more parliamentary seats than the Tories even if their overall national vote share remains slightly lower.

“The Liberal Democrat vote is now much more geographically concentrated than your vote,” Curtice told the panel. “The electoral system is treating you in the same way it once treated the Liberal Democrats. And so the Lib Dems are just behind you in the polls, but they are almost certainly going to win more seats than you.”

Curtice also highlighted the disintegration of the coalition of voters that former Prime Minister Boris Johnson had relied upon in the 2019 election. He explained that many former Conservative supporters have migrated to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party, which has successfully captured the majority of the pro-Brexit vote. “The Johnsonian coalition of 2019 has been ripped from underneath you by Reform,” he said. “This realignment of British politics, which emerged in 2019, remains in place. Brexit still matters profoundly in our political landscape. Your challenge is that you now fail to occupy either the pro-EU or anti-EU space effectively.”

Curtice also noted that Conservative support appears evenly split between Brexit and Remain voters, offering little electoral advantage on either side. This fragmentation, he suggested, poses a serious risk to the party’s future relevance. “The Conservative Party potentially risks losing its role as a significant governing force in the UK. I think that is a serious problem,” he added.

Turning to tactical considerations, the pollster advised that the Tories focus on regaining their core support before attempting direct challenges to their opponents in strongly defended constituencies. “In going for the front line of your opponents, you are likely to face well-fortified positions. An alternative strategy, depending on geography, might be to target flanks where competition is weaker,” he said.

Curtice acknowledged that while the Conservatives are losing ground on issues such as immigration, they retain a measure of credibility on economic matters among voters who supported them in the 2024 election. This residual trust, he argued, offers a potential path to reclaim some lost support if leveraged carefully.

The analysis paints a stark picture for the Conservative Party, suggesting that even modest shifts in voting patterns could result in a substantial loss of parliamentary representation. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats appear well-positioned to capitalise on these dynamics, benefiting both from concentrated voter support in key areas and the fragmentation of traditional Conservative constituencies.

Experts say this realignment reflects broader trends in British politics, including the rise of smaller parties like Reform UK, increasing volatility among traditional Conservative voters, and a political landscape that remains sharply divided over Brexit and economic policy. With the next general election still months away, parties on all sides are recalibrating their strategies in response to these insights, aiming to secure influence in a rapidly evolving political environment.

Curtice concluded by emphasising the need for the Conservative Party to carefully rebuild its electoral base and focus on both tactical campaigning and reconnecting with disillusioned voters. Failure to do so, he warned, could result in the Tories losing their position as a dominant force in UK politics, while the Liberal Democrats and other emerging parties consolidate their gains.