Mark Carney Walks Diplomatic Tightrope on China Visit

Published: 14 January 2026 | The English Chronicle Desk | The English Chronicle Online

Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney arrives in China this week on a visit laden with promise, risk and global scrutiny, as Ottawa attempts to recalibrate one of its most complex foreign relationships at a time of deep economic and geopolitical uncertainty. The trip, the first by a Canadian prime minister to China since 2017, is being billed by senior officials as both “consequential and historic”, yet few in Ottawa harbour illusions about how difficult the balancing act will be.

Carney’s objective is clear: to reset strained ties with Beijing and unlock new economic opportunities beyond the United States, Canada’s dominant trading partner. But the path he must tread is narrow. Any warming of relations with China risks provoking unease in Washington, where President Donald Trump’s administration has already imposed punishing tariffs on key Canadian sectors. At the same time, Carney must ensure that engagement with Beijing does not undermine Canada’s commitments on national security, human rights and democratic values.

Canada’s urgency is driven by necessity. With its trade future with the United States increasingly uncertain, Ottawa is under pressure to diversify exports and reduce its vulnerability to political shocks south of the border. Senior officials describe Carney’s visit as part of a “bold” long-term strategy to double Canada’s non-US exports over the next decade. In that context, China’s sheer economic scale makes it impossible to ignore.

Trade is expected to dominate the agenda, alongside agriculture, climate cooperation and international security. Carney’s office has said the talks will explore areas of mutual interest while clearly delineating where differences remain. Beijing, for its part, has struck a conciliatory tone. China’s foreign ministry said the two countries share “common interests” and should work to expand people-to-people ties and cultural exchanges, signalling a desire to move past years of mutual suspicion.

The visit begins on Thursday with meetings between Carney and China’s Premier Li Qiang, as well as Zhao Leji, Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress. On Friday, Carney is scheduled for a one-on-one meeting with President Xi Jinping, following a brief encounter between the two leaders last year on the margins of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea. Diplomats on both sides see the Xi meeting as the most significant moment of the trip, setting the tone for whether a genuine thaw is possible.

Relations between Ottawa and Beijing have been deeply troubled since 2018, when Canadian authorities arrested Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou in Vancouver on a US extradition request related to alleged fraud and violations of Iran sanctions. Beijing responded angrily, detaining two Canadian citizens, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, on espionage charges widely viewed in the West as retaliatory. The standoff paralysed bilateral ties and poisoned public opinion in Canada.

All three were released in 2021 after Meng reached a deferred prosecution agreement with US authorities, but the damage lingered. More recently, allegations of Chinese interference in Canadian politics have further strained relations. Although a public inquiry found the impact of foreign interference on recent federal elections to be limited, the issue remains politically sensitive. China has consistently denied any wrongdoing, accusing Canada of politicising normal diplomatic engagement.

Against this backdrop, Carney’s visit represents a cautious attempt at rapprochement rather than a wholesale reset. Ottawa continues to describe China as “an increasingly disruptive global power” that often disregards international norms. Senior government officials have stressed that this assessment has not changed. What has changed, they argue, is Canada’s recognition that it cannot realistically reduce its dependence on the US without engaging more constructively with China.

Carney is said to be approaching the talks with a pragmatic framework: expand cooperation where interests align, such as climate action, clean energy and global health, while erecting clear guardrails in more contentious areas like defence, critical minerals and advanced technology. “I think we are approaching the relationship now with a realism that we haven’t seen for decades,” said Colin Robertson, a former Canadian diplomat. “If both sides understand the red lines, it could actually lead to a healthier relationship.”

That realism has already been tested. In the days leading up to Carney’s departure, two Liberal Members of Parliament cut short a sponsored visit to Taiwan, citing concerns about policy coherence. While Canada’s position on Taiwan remains unchanged, the MPs said the decision was taken to “avoid confusion” during the prime minister’s engagement in Beijing. The episode underscores how sensitive the diplomatic environment has become, and how closely Ottawa is calibrating its signals.

One of Canada’s most pressing goals during the visit is relief from Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola, which have inflicted significant losses on farmers in the prairie provinces. China imposed the tariffs last year, a move widely interpreted as retaliation for Canadian levies on Chinese electric vehicles announced in 2024, in step with similar measures taken by the United States.

The dispute has become emblematic of Canada’s dilemma. In a pointed editorial this week, China’s state-run Global Times highlighted frustration among Canadian farmers, suggesting that Ottawa had paid “a heavy price” for “blindly following the US”. Beijing has been explicit in linking any easing of agricultural tariffs to Canada’s EV levies, placing Carney under pressure to deliver tangible results without appearing to capitulate.

From China’s perspective, Canada is a valuable partner. Bilateral trade reached an estimated $118bn in 2024, and Canada’s resources, technology and education sector remain attractive to Chinese policymakers. More strategically, any successful deal with Ottawa would give Beijing greater influence in a G7 country that sits firmly within America’s traditional sphere of influence.

The Global Times has urged Canada to pursue a foreign policy distinct from Washington’s and to exercise what it calls “strategic autonomy”. Such language will resonate uneasily in Ottawa, where policymakers are acutely aware of the need to reassure the United States even as they diversify economic ties.

How Washington will respond to Carney’s China outreach remains an open question. The US has imposed tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminium and automobiles, hitting key industries hard, and talks aimed at easing those levies remain stalled. Later this year, Canada will also enter negotiations to renew the North American free trade agreement with the US and Mexico, a pact that has shielded it from the worst of Trump’s sweeping tariff agenda.

Robertson believes the US is watching developments closely. “The Americans are following the Canada-China relationship very carefully,” he said, adding that Ottawa is keeping Washington “well informed” of its intentions. Yet he was clear about the stakes. “At the end of the day, there are Canadian interests that we’re pursuing.”

For Carney, the challenge is to demonstrate that Canada can engage China from a position of principle and confidence, without undermining alliances or values. Success will not be measured by grand declarations, but by incremental progress: a reopening of dialogue, limited trade gains, and a reduction in tensions that have long constrained Canada’s options.

As he sits down with China’s leadership, Carney will be acutely aware that every gesture will be scrutinised, not just in Beijing and Ottawa, but in Washington as well. His visit may not resolve the deep contradictions at the heart of Canada-China relations, but it could mark the beginning of a more nuanced and pragmatic chapter. In an increasingly fragmented global order, that balancing act may prove essential to safeguarding Canada’s economic resilience and diplomatic independence.