Swinney cites 2011 precedent to push for indyref2

Published: 13 October 2025. The English Chronicle Desk. The English Chronicle Online

Scottish First Minister John Swinney has insisted that the precedent set ahead of the 2014 Scottish independence referendum strengthens his case for a second vote, should the Scottish National Party (SNP) secure a majority in next year’s Holyrood election. Speaking on BBC Scotland’s The Sunday Show, Swinney argued that the outcome of the 2011 election, in which the SNP gained more than half of all seats at Holyrood, provides a “clearly established basis” for negotiating a mandate for a new referendum.

Swinney, who is leading the SNP’s strategy ahead of the upcoming election, said that the 2011 result, achieved under the late Alex Salmond, gave his party a historically strong position and demonstrated the Scottish electorate’s capacity to signal its preferences decisively. “Precedent is on my side,” he said. “This is what happened in 2011. And precedent is a substantial factor in legal consideration of the right of the people of Scotland to decide their own future.”

The SNP leader’s comments came as party delegates at the SNP conference in Aberdeen endorsed his approach, effectively framing the next Holyrood election as a de facto vote on independence. Swinney stressed that issues such as standards of living, healthcare, and affordable housing are inherently linked to the question of independence. “I would say to people worried about their standard of living, this election should be about independence,” he said. “Because, under the United Kingdom, people’s standard of living has been flat as a pancake for 15 years.”

He emphasised that Scotland faces important choices in the context of broader UK politics, particularly what he described as a “shift to the right” under the current Labour government. Swinney highlighted the SNP’s achievements in improving public services, including reducing NHS waiting lists and building more affordable housing, while insisting that self-government offers the best path for further progress. “Self-government works for the people of Scotland and if we want to improve living standards, let’s have the choice of independence,” he added.

Former First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, who is preparing to step down as an MSP next year, expressed her support for Swinney’s strategy during the conference. While signing copies of her new memoir, Sturgeon acknowledged the difficulty of achieving a majority but stressed that ambitious targets are essential for major political change. “If you don’t set your sights high, you don’t deliver big things,” she said, reinforcing the SNP leadership’s vision for the next election.

Swinney’s arguments rely on historical context, referencing the 2011 Scottish parliamentary election when the SNP, under Alex Salmond, won 69 of 129 seats. That victory eventually paved the way for the 2014 independence referendum under the Edinburgh Agreement, signed by Salmond and then-Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron in October 2012. The agreement outlined the terms for the 2014 ballot under Section 30 of the Scotland Act 1998. Ultimately, Scotland voted to remain in the UK, with 55.3% opposing independence compared to 44.7% in favour.

Any new referendum would require approval from the UK prime minister, a point underlined by Scottish Secretary Douglas Alexander. Alexander told The Sunday Show that the Labour government, led by Sir Keir Starmer, does not support a second independence vote and has no plans to grant consent. He dismissed Swinney’s arguments as a diversion from the SNP’s record on public services, describing them as part of a broader attempt to deflect scrutiny. “This is all about marching his troops in that hall up to the top of the hill and then back down again,” Alexander said. “We have heard all of this before.”

The Scottish Secretary emphasised that his mandate, based on the Labour manifesto from July 2024, is clear: the UK Labour government opposes another referendum. “I was elected on a very clear manifesto, which said Labour does not support independence or another referendum. That’s the mandate on which I was elected, and I will adhere to that mandate,” Alexander said.

Conservative figures also criticised Swinney, accusing him of prioritising the independence agenda over pressing domestic issues. Scottish Conservative deputy leader Rachael Hamilton said the first minister was “desperately pushing his obsession with independence” to distract from the SNP’s failures in government, particularly concerning the NHS, schools, jobs, and economic growth. Hamilton argued that Swinney was “putting party before country” by focusing on constitutional questions instead of practical solutions for Scotland’s challenges.

Meanwhile, Liberal Democrat MSP Willie Rennie echoed similar sentiments, describing independence as a “crutch” the SNP uses to regain political momentum. He suggested that Swinney’s focus on a referendum is designed to deflect attention from nearly two decades of governance by the SNP. “People will see through the strategy as they want change from the same old stuff,” Rennie said, stressing the electorate’s desire for tangible improvements rather than constitutional debates.

Swinney, however, remained steadfast, arguing that the SNP’s record and ambitions are intrinsically linked to Scotland’s ability to self-govern. He described independence as the mechanism through which Scotland could tackle persistent economic stagnation and address long-term social challenges. “We need to ask ourselves whether Scotland is going to accept more of the same under the UK, or whether we are going to take control of our own future,” he said, framing the issue as both political and existential for the Scottish people.

The first minister also sought to address concerns about campaign focus. While acknowledging the importance of public services and living standards, he maintained that independence is the fundamental issue, because decisions on the economy, healthcare, and housing are ultimately constrained by UK-wide policies. Swinney’s strategy positions the next Holyrood election not merely as a regional vote, but as a referendum on Scotland’s governance and autonomy.

As discussions intensify ahead of the 2026 Holyrood election, the debate over a second independence referendum remains central to Scottish politics. While Swinney and his allies stress historical precedent and popular mandate, opponents argue that the SNP is prioritising constitutional ambitions over immediate societal needs. The contrasting perspectives reflect deeper questions about governance, political accountability, and the future direction of Scotland within the United Kingdom.

The political landscape remains sharply divided. Sir Keir Starmer and the UK Labour government have reiterated their position against a second vote, while Conservative and Liberal Democrat voices continue to highlight the risks of diverting attention from domestic priorities. Swinney and the SNP, meanwhile, are seeking to consolidate support by framing independence as both a practical and aspirational goal, linking it directly to economic prosperity and social wellbeing.

In the coming months, the debate over independence, precedent, and party mandates is expected to dominate public discourse. Swinney’s insistence that the 2011 election provides legal and political justification for a new referendum ensures that the conversation will remain contentious, as parties, pundits, and the public navigate the complex interplay between historical precedent, democratic rights, and contemporary governance challenges.

Whether the next Holyrood election becomes a de facto referendum on independence remains to be seen, but Swinney’s strategy has undeniably placed constitutional questions at the centre of Scotland’s political agenda, forcing all parties to clarify their positions on the future of the United Kingdom.