A Delicate Dance of Sunshine and Storms: UK’s Summer Forecast Holds Mixed Fortunes for Holidaymakers

Published: 07th August 2025 | The English Chronicle Desk

As the school summer holidays continue in full swing across the United Kingdom, parents and holidaymakers alike are keeping a close eye on the skies, wondering whether to dust off the barbecue or pack away the picnic and pull out umbrellas. After a blistering start to summer featuring three separate heatwaves and record-breaking temperatures in June and early July, the weather now seems to have entered a more temperate, and at times tempestuous, phase. So, is the sunshine set to return, or will the final weeks of the break be defined by grey skies and soggy afternoons?

According to the latest updates from the Met Office, the immediate outlook appears varied. This week, much of the UK is likely to see temperatures hover in the high teens, punctuated by bursts of sunshine and sporadic thunderstorms. Southern England in particular might witness a late surge of summer heat, with forecasts hinting at temperatures creeping into the low 30s by the end of the week. However, the days of 35°C scorchers look to be behind us for now, as cooler Atlantic air begins to move across the country from the west, threatening more unsettled spells for Wales, northern England and much of Scotland.

The UK’s definition of a heatwave is tied to regional thresholds – ranging from 25°C in Scotland and Northern Ireland to 28°C in London and the South East – sustained for three consecutive days. So far, 2025 has delivered on that front, with Britain experiencing increasingly frequent and severe heat events, a trend scientists attribute largely to the intensifying impacts of climate change. Already this summer, Kent registered a sweltering 35.8°C on the 1st of July, the highest temperature recorded so far this year.

Despite a cooler interlude during late July and early August, forecasters remain cautiously optimistic that the country may yet experience further warm weather before the end of the month. Between August 2nd and 11th, the southern half of the UK, as well as parts of eastern England, are expected to enjoy dry, sunny stretches. Northern Ireland and western Scotland, however, may need to brace for more rain and fleeting sunshine, though average temperatures will likely remain near or slightly above seasonal norms.

The latter half of the month, from August 12th to 26th, is forecast to be largely dry and stable across much of the country, thanks to the presence of a high-pressure system lingering over the southwest. This could potentially push further northward, spreading more settled weather nationwide. Yet even under such favourable conditions, the risk of occasional showers and isolated thunderstorms remains on the cards, particularly in the west and northwest.

Looking back at last summer, 2024 was relatively mild and forgettable in contrast. With a mean temperature of just 14.37°C, it ranked as the coolest British summer since 2015, falling 0.22°C below the 1991–2020 average. It was a season marked by grey skies, average rainfall, and little in the way of extreme heat. By contrast, 2025 has proven exceptional. June 2025 was officially the second warmest on record for the UK, with England recording a mean temperature of 16.9°C – the hottest June for the region ever. Central England posted a temperature anomaly of +1.9°C by July, underscoring just how significantly warmer this summer has been.

These striking variations are no longer anomalies but part of an emerging pattern. Climate scientists consistently warn that extreme heat events will become more frequent and intense as global temperatures continue to rise. Britain’s last three summers – 2022, 2023 and 2024 – now rank among the hottest recorded since systematic observations began in 1884, with 2024 leading the pack.

These developments feed into a wider, more sobering narrative on climate change. According to the scientific consensus, human activities have fundamentally altered the planet’s climate. Each of the last three decades has been warmer than the one before it, and 17 of the 18 hottest years on record have occurred since the turn of the 21st century. Oceans are warming, glaciers and polar ice are retreating at unprecedented rates, and extreme weather events – including floods, droughts, and heatwaves – are becoming more common and more severe. The 2015 Paris Agreement was a global effort to address this crisis, aiming to limit global temperature rise to below 2°C. Yet even small increases are already having outsized effects.

As for the rest of this summer, the UK appears poised for a delicate balance between bright, sunny days and the occasional unwelcome downpour. The long-range forecast does not currently signal a return to intense heat, but it does suggest occasional warm spells strong enough to tempt the British public back to their gardens, parks and beaches – if only between showers.

So, while the suncream might not be permanently back in the drawer, neither should the umbrella be too far from reach. Summer 2025 is proving to be a season of contradictions – one that embodies both the joys and unpredictability of the British climate in a warming world.