DRC Ebola Outbreak Peaks as New Cases and Transmission Slow

Published: 15 September 2026. The English Chronicle Desk. The English Chronicle Online.

Authorities in the Democratic Republic of the Congo have announced that the country’s latest Ebola outbreak has reached its peak, offering a measure of hope after months of rapidly spreading disease, thousands of infections and a heavy death toll. Health officials say the number of new cases is now declining, although they have stressed that preventive measures must remain firmly in place to prevent a renewed surge.

Congolese Health Minister Samuel Roger Kamba said transmission of the Bundibugyo variant, which is responsible for the current outbreak, has begun to slow. He said health authorities had previously been recording around 120 new cases a day, while the current figure has fallen to about 80.

The minister described the development as a significant indication that the response is beginning to contain the virus. However, he also stressed that the danger has not disappeared and that communities and health workers must continue following measures designed to limit transmission.

The outbreak was declared by Congolese authorities on 15 May and has been concentrated largely in Ituri province in the north-east of the country. The region has been particularly difficult for health teams to operate in because of continuing conflict and insecurity, which have complicated surveillance, contact tracing and other measures needed to contain a highly contagious disease.

The latest figures released by the Congolese health ministry show the scale of the crisis. As of 14 September, more than 7,200 confirmed cases had been recorded, while the death toll had surpassed 3,475. The outbreak has also spread beyond its main centre in Ituri. Last week, Sud-Ubangi became the sixth province to report cases. The province lies along the borders with Congo-Brazzaville and the Central African Republic, raising concerns about the possibility of wider regional transmission.

Kamba said the reduction in new cases was being accompanied by progress across several health zones. Of the country’s 62 health zones, 10 had gone more than 22 days without reporting a new case, he said. Six of those zones had passed the 42-day period required for removal from the active outbreak list, while four others had gone more than 21 days without a newly reported case.

Such developments are encouraging for health officials, but experts and local political figures have urged caution. Iracan Gratien de Saint-Nicolas, a member of parliament representing Bunia, the capital of Ituri province, warned against what he described as premature triumphalism.

Iracan argued that a declaration that an epidemic is under control should be supported by clear and publicly available evidence. He called for greater transparency around the data being used by authorities to assess the situation, saying that objective indicators would help strengthen public confidence.

His concerns centre partly on the effectiveness of epidemiological surveillance during the outbreak. He said weaknesses in surveillance had contributed to the rapid spread of the disease and that authorities should learn from those failures rather than simply focus on the recent decline in infections.

Among the indicators that he believes should be closely examined are whether new cases have continued to fall over a sustained period, whether deaths are decreasing, whether the number of areas with active transmission is shrinking and whether most newly infected people are already known contacts of confirmed cases. Effective contact tracing and safe, dignified burials are also important measures in determining whether an outbreak is genuinely being brought under control.

The importance of those indicators was highlighted earlier in the outbreak by Jean Kaseya, director general of the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention. During a visit to Bunia last month, Kaseya said it was still impossible at that stage to determine when the outbreak would reach its peak. He also warned that containment and contact tracing were not yet sufficiently effective.

Kaseya pointed particularly to the number of deaths occurring within communities rather than under medical supervision. He said a large proportion of mortality was occurring in communities and noted that the list of people who had been in contact with infected individuals was continuing to grow.

For epidemiologists, one of the clearest signs that an outbreak has reached its peak is when newly identified infections are increasingly coming from people who are already on contact lists. That means health teams are finding cases through active monitoring rather than discovering them unexpectedly in the wider community.

The situation remains especially difficult because of the nature of the Bundibugyo virus. The current outbreak is the 17th Ebola outbreak recorded in the Democratic Republic of the Congo since the disease was first identified and named in 1976. Unlike the more familiar Zaire Ebola virus, for which an approved vaccine exists, there is currently no effective treatment specifically established for the Bundibugyo variant.

Clinical trials are under way in the region as researchers and health authorities seek better options for patients affected by the virus. The DRC also received more than 70,000 doses of the Ervebo vaccine last month. That vaccine is approved for protection against the Zaire Ebola virus, the variant responsible for several previous major Ebola epidemics.

The response therefore continues to depend heavily on early detection, isolation, contact tracing, infection prevention and community cooperation. These measures can become particularly challenging in areas affected by conflict, where movement restrictions, insecurity and limited access to health facilities can interfere with the ability of medical teams to reach patients and monitor contacts.

For people living in affected communities, the decline in cases brings cautious relief after months of fear and disruption. In Rwampara, a town in Ituri, residents have spent months living with the threat of infection and the loss of friends and relatives.

Léa Munyere, a 36-year-old mother of four, said the announcement that the outbreak was under control had brought her relief. Two of her close friends had died during the crisis, leaving her struggling with the emotional consequences of the disease.

She expressed hope that the outbreak would soon be declared over and that residents could begin rebuilding their lives. Her experience reflects the wider human cost of the epidemic, which extends beyond official case and mortality figures to include grief, fear, disrupted routines and uncertainty about the future.

The authorities’ announcement therefore represents an important milestone, but not necessarily the end of the emergency. Ebola outbreaks can remain dangerous even after transmission begins to decline, particularly if undetected cases continue to circulate or if surveillance and contact tracing weaken too early.

The emergence of cases in Sud-Ubangi also demonstrates the continuing need for vigilance beyond the main outbreak area. Cross-border movement between the DRC, Congo-Brazzaville and the Central African Republic makes regional cooperation an important part of containing the disease.

For health authorities, the immediate challenge is to convert the recent decline into sustained interruption of transmission. That will require continued monitoring of suspected cases, rapid identification of contacts, effective infection-control measures and public communication that communities can trust.

The government’s assessment that the outbreak has peaked provides grounds for cautious optimism. Yet the warnings from public health experts and local representatives underline the need to judge progress through transparent and consistent evidence rather than declarations alone.

With more than 7,200 confirmed cases and over 3,475 deaths already recorded, the outbreak has exacted a devastating toll. For communities in Ituri and other affected provinces, the priority now is to ensure that the downward trend continues until transmission is fully stopped and the disease can finally be declared over.