Tactical Voting Could Reshape UK Election Contest

Published: 24 September 2026. The English Chronicle Desk. The English Chronicle Online

A new poll examining voting intentions and tactical voting in Britain suggests that the outcome of the next general election could be significantly affected by voters who are prepared to support a party other than their preferred choice in order to influence the result in their constituency.

The research, conducted by Survation and the progressive campaign organisation 38 Degrees, surveyed more than 8,000 voters and included a constituency-by-constituency modelling exercise. The research was carried out during the first month of Andy Burnham’s premiership and comes as Britain’s political parties prepare for their respective conference seasons.

The findings provide a snapshot rather than a prediction of the eventual election result. The next general election is not being held at the time of the research, voter preferences can change considerably before polling day, and tactical voting is particularly difficult to model because it depends on local contests and the choices made by individual voters.

Under the poll’s standard modelling assumptions, Labour would be the largest party if an election were held at the time of the survey, with 272 parliamentary seats. Reform UK would be projected to have 153 seats, while the Conservatives would have 85. The model therefore produces a parliament in which no party reaches an overall majority.

The research then examines what could happen if voters who say they are willing to vote tactically actually switched their support to whichever candidate they regarded as best placed locally to defeat a party they did not want to win.

Under that scenario, the model projects Labour on 319 seats, six short of an overall majority, while Reform UK’s projected total falls to 62 seats. The Conservatives would gain a number of seats as well. The researchers stress that this scenario is not a forecast of what voters will ultimately do, but an illustration of how coordinated voting could affect constituency outcomes under the assumptions used in the model.

Around 200 constituencies are described in the research as close contests, with the leading candidates separated by less than five percentage points. The researchers argue that relatively small changes in voter behaviour could therefore alter the outcome in a large number of constituencies.

The findings also highlight the difference between national vote share and parliamentary representation under Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system. A party can increase its share of the vote nationally while losing seats if its support is distributed inefficiently across constituencies. Similarly, tactical coordination among supporters of competing parties can change which candidate finishes first even when the underlying national vote shares change relatively little.

The model identifies 91 constituencies in which Reform UK would cease to be the projected leading party under the higher tactical-voting scenario. Of those seats, 46 would move towards the Conservatives and 43 towards Labour in the model. The researchers caution that the precise constituency-level projections are inherently uncertain this far from an election.

Survation chief executive Damian Lyons Lowe said tactical voting was difficult to estimate because it involved decisions made at individual constituency level. He said the research nevertheless found a substantial number of voters who were currently supporting parties that were not among the two strongest contenders in their constituency but were open to switching.

The poll’s findings also indicate movement among voters who previously supported Labour. According to the research, twice as many voters have returned to Labour from parties on its left since April as have returned from the right. The finding suggests that some voters who previously moved towards the Greens, Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru or the Scottish National party may now be reconsidering their choices.

The research does not indicate that all such voters would ultimately return to Labour. Political preferences remain fluid, and the reasons voters give for considering tactical voting can differ substantially depending on the constituency and the parties competing there.

Other recent polling has also examined tactical voting and found that voter behaviour can change considerably when respondents are asked to imagine a constituency in which only two parties have a realistic chance of winning. A September study by YouGov found different levels of willingness among voters to support Labour, the Conservatives, Reform UK, the Liberal Democrats or the Greens depending on which parties were considered competitive locally.

This distinction is important because a national voting-intention poll does not necessarily reveal how voters would behave in a constituency where their preferred party has little chance of winning. Under first-past-the-post, local tactical considerations can become particularly important when several parties compete for a relatively small number of marginal seats.

The research gives examples of constituencies where the projected result changes substantially when tactical voting is introduced into the model. In Bassetlaw, for example, the model suggests that Reform UK could increase its own vote share but nevertheless lose the seat if Labour gained enough support from voters switching tactically.

The research also examines Rawmarsh and Conisbrough, where Labour’s John Healey won in 2024 with a substantial share of the vote. The modelling suggests that the constituency could become competitive under different voting assumptions, demonstrating how national shifts and tactical decisions can interact in individual seats.

Newark provides another example of the complexity of tactical voting. The constituency is represented by Robert Jenrick, who moved from the Conservatives to Reform UK. The model suggests that the Conservatives could remain competitive there under both ordinary and higher tactical-voting assumptions, with the level of projected Conservative support changing significantly depending on how Labour supporters behave.

These examples illustrate why constituency-level modelling can produce outcomes that appear very different from national opinion polls. A few percentage points of movement can be enough to change the winner in a marginal constituency, while the same change may have little effect in a safe seat.

The political significance of tactical voting has grown as Britain’s party system has become more fragmented. The 2024 general election demonstrated how votes distributed among several parties could produce large differences between national vote shares and the number of parliamentary seats won.

Reform UK’s emergence as a major electoral force has added another dimension to this fragmentation. Support that previously concentrated primarily around Labour and the Conservatives is now divided among a larger number of parties, while the Greens and Liberal Democrats retain significant support in particular regions and constituencies.

Recent polling has also shown that Reform UK’s position varies considerably depending on the electoral scenario being considered. YouGov’s September tactical-voting research found that when Reform UK and Labour were the only parties considered capable of winning a constituency, respondents favoured Labour in that hypothetical contest. In a Conservative-Reform contest, the Conservatives led among respondents in the same type of scenario.

Such findings should not be interpreted as evidence that voters will necessarily behave in the same way during an actual general election. Tactical voting decisions can depend on constituency information, campaign activity, candidate preferences, local political history and perceptions of which candidates are genuinely competitive.

The poll also highlights the importance of the cost of living to voters. Veronica Hawking of 38 Degrees said the research showed common concerns among voters who had moved between different political parties since the 2024 election. She identified living costs as a particularly important issue in determining future voting decisions.

That finding reflects a wider feature of British politics: voters may hold different views on immigration, taxation, public services, the environment and Britain’s relationship with Europe while sharing concerns about household finances and living standards.

For Labour, the research provides information about the potential importance of rebuilding support among voters who moved towards other progressive parties after the 2024 election. For the Conservatives and Reform UK, it illustrates the potential importance of retaining voters on the right when constituency-level tactical voting becomes a factor.

For smaller parties, tactical voting presents a different challenge. A voter who supports a party strongly at national level may nevertheless decide to support another candidate if the preferred party has little prospect of winning locally. This can reduce the parliamentary representation of parties whose national vote share is substantial but geographically dispersed.

The researchers themselves acknowledge the limitations of the exercise. Tactical voting is inherently dependent on local circumstances, and the political landscape can change substantially before an election. Candidate selections, party leadership changes, campaign controversies, economic developments and major policy announcements can all influence voter behaviour.

The timing of the next general election is also relevant. The current modelling describes what might happen under the conditions measured in September 2026 rather than establishing what will happen at a future election.

Consequently, the figures should be understood as scenarios rather than established outcomes. The 272 seats projected for Labour under the standard model, the 153 for Reform UK and the 85 for the Conservatives are estimates generated from the poll and MRP methodology. The alternative scenario of 319 Labour seats and 62 Reform UK seats depends on a particular assumption about how voters who are open to tactical voting would behave.

The wider significance of the research lies in showing how constituency-level decisions can interact with Britain’s electoral system. With many seats potentially close, relatively modest changes in voter behaviour could alter the parliamentary balance even without dramatic changes in national vote shares.

The research therefore provides another illustration of the uncertainty surrounding Britain’s next general election. Rather than establishing a definitive outcome, it shows how different voting behaviours could produce substantially different parliamentary configurations.

As the political parties continue campaigning and voters reassess their preferences, tactical voting is likely to remain an important part of discussions about marginal constituencies. Whether voters ultimately prioritise their preferred party or seek to influence which candidate wins locally will depend on individual choices and the political circumstances at the time of the election.

For now, the latest research offers a detailed snapshot of those possibilities while underlining the limits of any long-range electoral projection. The eventual result will depend on the choices voters make when the election takes place, rather than on any single poll or modelling scenario.