Germany’s Far Right Surge Puts Merz Under Pressure

Published: 12 September 2026. The English Chronicle Desk. The English Chronicle Online.

Germany’s political establishment is facing renewed pressure after the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) made a major breakthrough in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, raising fresh questions about the future of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government and the country’s long-standing strategy of keeping the far right outside mainstream political power.

The AfD secured nearly 44% of the vote in last weekend’s regional election in Saxony-Anhalt, falling only three seats short of an outright majority. The result represented a severe setback for the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), while giving the far-right party its strongest political position yet in a German state.

AfD lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund is now attempting to secure sufficient support from other political forces to establish a state government. Such an outcome would mark a historic development in postwar Germany, where mainstream parties have traditionally maintained a political firewall against cooperation with the AfD.

The uncertainty has intensified concerns across Germany and beyond. The country remains Europe’s largest economy and one of its most influential political powers, meaning a significant shift in its domestic political balance could have consequences for the wider European Union.

The election has also placed Merz under considerable political pressure. The chancellor has been in office for only around 16 months, but his government is already facing difficult questions over the economy, social welfare, migration, national security and public confidence in mainstream political parties.

Merz entered government promising to restore economic growth, strengthen Germany’s defence capabilities and reform the country’s increasingly expensive social welfare system. His political strategy for containing the far right was largely based on demonstrating that established parties could govern effectively and address voters’ most pressing concerns.

Migration was another central part of his approach. Merz sought to move the centre-right towards tougher policies on irregular migration, partly in an effort to reduce the political appeal of the AfD. However, the strategy has not prevented the far-right party from expanding its support.

Instead, the AfD has increasingly broadened its political message. While immigration remains a major issue, the party has also focused on deindustrialisation, regional identity, living costs, crime and dissatisfaction with the pace of economic change.

That expansion has allowed the AfD to attract support beyond its traditional strongholds in eastern Germany. The development is particularly significant because Germany has spent years attempting to isolate the party politically through the so-called firewall strategy.

The principle behind that strategy has been straightforward: mainstream parties refuse formal cooperation with the AfD in order to prevent the normalisation of far-right politics. Yet critics increasingly argue that the approach has also allowed the AfD to remain a permanent opposition force, blaming the government for every problem without having to assume responsibility for governing.

The Saxony-Anhalt result has therefore reopened a difficult debate over whether the existing strategy is still effective.

Merz’s political difficulties are not limited to the rise of the AfD. His government is also preparing reforms affecting pensions and healthcare, measures that could require voters to accept significant changes to long-established social protections.

Political scientist Thomas Biebricher of Goethe University Frankfurt has argued that one of Merz’s major weaknesses has been his difficulty explaining the necessity of such reforms to the public.

The problem, according to this view, is not simply the substance of the reforms but the government’s ability to persuade citizens that short-term sacrifices may be necessary to secure long-term economic and social stability.

Former Chancellor Angela Merkel, a longtime rival of Merz within the CDU, has also expressed concern about the political situation. Although Merkel has previously criticised Merz over his rhetoric on migration and integration, she has said she takes no pleasure in the current difficulties facing the party.

Merkel described the Saxony-Anhalt result as a turning point in the history of the Federal Republic. She also pointed to a growing gap between political statistics and the public’s perception of everyday life.

During the election campaign, the CDU highlighted improvements in employment and household wealth in Saxony-Anhalt. Yet the AfD was able to counter those arguments by focusing on how economic conditions felt to voters rather than relying exclusively on statistical indicators.

That distinction may prove increasingly important in Germany’s political debate. Economic figures can show improvement while many citizens continue to feel insecure about their jobs, purchasing power, public services and future prospects.

The AfD’s ability to exploit that disconnect is one of the central challenges facing the mainstream parties.

The party itself has undergone a significant transformation since its creation in 2013. Initially founded as a Eurosceptic movement opposing financial assistance to debt-ridden European countries, it became increasingly radical during the refugee crisis of 2015 and 2016.

Germany’s decision at the time to accept large numbers of asylum seekers became a defining political issue. Over the years, however, the AfD has developed a much broader platform and has increasingly positioned itself as the principal vehicle for protest against Germany’s political establishment.

The current political environment is made even more difficult by Germany’s wider economic and security challenges.

The country faces pressure from Russia, growing competition from China, difficulties within its industrial sector, demographic changes and the financial burden of maintaining its social welfare system. Germany’s automobile industry, once one of the foundations of its economic strength, is experiencing intense international competition and significant employment pressures.

Infrastructure problems and vulnerabilities in energy supplies and global supply chains have added to concerns about the country’s economic resilience.

These problems mean that changing the chancellor alone would not necessarily resolve the underlying difficulties. Biebricher has argued that Germany’s challenges are structural and cannot simply be eliminated by installing a leader with stronger communication skills.

Nevertheless, Merz’s political future is increasingly being discussed inside and outside the CDU.

Two further regional elections, in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, are scheduled for 20 September. The AfD is performing strongly in polling in both states, increasing the pressure on the CDU and the federal government.

The results could determine whether calls for a leadership change within the centre-right become louder.

Among the potential figures who could eventually challenge Merz are North Rhine-Westphalia premier Hendrik Wüst and Bavaria’s conservative leader Markus Söder. Both possess significant political profiles, but neither appears eager to take responsibility for the federal government’s difficulties at a moment when the political risks are exceptionally high.

Wüst faces a re-election contest in North Rhine-Westphalia next year, while Söder represents the more conservative wing of the CDU-CSU political bloc and shares some of Merz’s tougher positions on migration.

The debate over migration remains particularly sensitive. Political scientists have repeatedly questioned whether mainstream parties can successfully weaken far-right movements simply by adopting parts of their rhetoric. There is concern that such an approach can instead shift the political debate further towards the far right while leaving the original party’s support intact.

Merz himself has experienced the consequences of this dilemma. Before the 2025 federal election, he accepted AfD support for a proposed migration measure, breaking an important political taboo. He subsequently faced strong criticism and stepped back from the approach amid widespread protests.

Since becoming chancellor, he has sought to establish a clearer distance from the AfD while maintaining a tougher stance on migration.

At the same time, irregular migration into Germany has reportedly declined significantly, yet the AfD has continued to gain political ground. That development suggests that immigration alone cannot explain the party’s growing appeal.

The deeper issue may be the accumulated frustration surrounding economic uncertainty, regional inequality, public services and a perception among some voters that established political parties are failing to deliver meaningful change.

For Merz, the challenge is therefore both political and communicative. He must convince voters that his government can deliver reforms while simultaneously preventing the AfD from becoming the principal beneficiary of public dissatisfaction.

During a heated parliamentary confrontation with the AfD this week, Merz acknowledged the seriousness of the political situation and reflected on the country’s future.

He referred to advice from the rector of a theological university, who had encouraged him to recognise that Germany still had opportunities ahead and not surrender to despair.

Merz indicated that he intended to remain in office and respond to the crisis with a renewed approach. He summarised the message in four ideas: acknowledging mistakes, forgiving, recovering and shaping the future.

Whether that strategy will be enough remains uncertain. The coming regional elections could provide an early indication of whether the CDU can regain momentum or whether the AfD’s electoral advance will continue.

For Germany’s political establishment, the stakes are substantial. The country must confront economic and security challenges while also addressing a growing sense of political alienation among sections of the electorate.

The immediate question is not simply whether Merz can survive politically. It is whether Germany’s established parties can rebuild public confidence quickly enough to prevent frustration from translating into further support for political forces outside the traditional democratic mainstream.

The outcome of that struggle could shape Germany’s domestic politics for years and influence the broader European debate over the future of democratic governance, political polarisation and the rise of the far right.