Sweden Election Hangs on Far-Right Breakthrough

Published: 12 September 2026. The English Chronicle Desk. The English Chronicle Online.

Sweden is heading into one of its closest elections in recent history, with the outcome potentially reshaping the country’s political direction and determining whether the far-right Sweden Democrats enter government for the first time. The parliamentary election, taking place on Sunday, comes amid an exceptionally tight contest between the country’s left-leaning and right-leaning political blocs, with the latest opinion polling suggesting that only a fraction of a percentage point separates the two sides.

The centre-left opposition alliance led by Social Democratic leader Magdalena Andersson remains narrowly ahead in the polls. Andersson, who served as prime minister before the current centre-right government came to power, is seeking a return to office after four years in opposition. However, the advantage enjoyed by her bloc has diminished significantly during the final phase of the campaign, leaving the result highly uncertain.

A Dagens Nyheter/Ipsos poll published on Friday placed the difference between the two main blocs at only 0.3 percentage points. On the basis of that polling projection, Andersson’s left-leaning alliance would secure approximately 175 parliamentary seats, while the right-leaning bloc led by Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson would hold 174. Such a narrow margin means that the performance of smaller parties could ultimately determine who has the ability to form a government.

The election is particularly significant because of the changing relationship between Sweden’s mainstream centre-right parties and the Sweden Democrats, a nationalist party that has steadily increased its influence over the past decade. In 2022, Kristersson, leader of the centre-right Moderate Party, broke a longstanding political taboo by reaching an agreement with the Sweden Democrats to enable his minority government to take office.

Although the Sweden Democrats did not initially hold ministerial positions, the agreement gave the party substantial influence over government policy, particularly in areas such as immigration, crime and integration. The political landscape has shifted further during the current campaign, with Kristersson now promising ministerial positions to Sweden Democrat representatives if the right-wing parties return to power.

Such a development would represent a major breakthrough for the Sweden Democrats and would mark a new stage in the party’s transition from the political margins into the centre of government decision-making. Senior political observers believe the party could receive several ministerial posts if the right-wing coalition wins enough seats to form a government.

The prospect has raised concerns among civil rights and legal experts who fear that greater Sweden Democrat influence could further weaken Sweden’s international reputation as a strong defender of human rights, democratic institutions and the international rules-based order.

John Stauffer, legal director of Civil Rights Defenders, said Sweden had undergone significant changes in its approach to crime and immigration during the past four years. He expressed concern that a continued right-wing government, particularly one involving the Sweden Democrats directly, could result in further restrictions on immigration and access to protection for people seeking refuge in the country.

The Sweden Democrats have proposed a number of measures reflecting their restrictive approach to migration. Their manifesto includes proposals concerning permanent residence permits, reductions in immigration and legislation addressing what the party describes as anti-Swedish sentiment in incitement cases. The party has also promoted the slogan “make Sweden Sweden again”, reflecting its emphasis on national identity and tougher immigration controls.

Sweden’s approach to crime has also become increasingly hardline. Measures introduced in recent years include the deportation of teenagers in certain circumstances, lowering the age of criminal responsibility and allowing children as young as 14 to be placed in adult prisons under specific conditions. These policies have generated debate over the balance between public security, punishment and the protection of children’s rights.

Despite those developments, Sweden has continued to be viewed internationally by many as a country strongly associated with human rights and the defence of democratic and legal principles. Civil rights advocates fear that a formal role for the Sweden Democrats in government could accelerate a shift away from that reputation.

Stauffer argued that the Sweden Democrats did not share the same ambition of positioning Sweden as an international leader on human rights issues. If the party enters government, he suggested, Sweden could increasingly be viewed internationally as an ordinary country rather than the exceptional human rights champion it has traditionally been regarded as.

However, a change of government would not necessarily mean a return to Sweden’s previous immigration and crime policies. Andersson and the Social Democrats have themselves moved to the right on several issues in an effort to regain voters who have become increasingly concerned about crime, immigration and integration.

That shift means that even a Social Democrat-led government is unlikely to immediately reverse many of the tougher policies introduced in recent years. Civil rights advocates believe, however, that the pace and direction of further restrictions could be different under a government led by Andersson.

The close contest has placed considerable attention on Sweden’s smaller political parties. The Liberals, who are part of the current governing coalition, could play an important role in determining whether the centre-right parties are able to form another government. Liberal leader Simona Mohamsson has faced controversy over her increasingly cooperative relationship with Sweden Democrat leader Jimmie Åkesson.

On the opposition side, the Centre Party’s performance could also prove decisive. Smaller parties need to perform strongly enough to retain their parliamentary influence, and even relatively modest changes in their vote shares could determine which bloc has the numbers needed to govern.

Political scientist Bo Petersson of Malmö University believes the Sweden Democrats have already achieved a major political objective by influencing the national debate on immigration. According to his assessment, mainstream parties have adopted many of the restrictive immigration positions that were once distinctive to the Sweden Democrats.

As a result, the election may now provide a test of whether the far-right party has additional electoral appeal beyond immigration. With established parties adopting stricter positions, the Sweden Democrats may find it more difficult to present themselves as an outsider force that stands entirely apart from the political establishment.

The election is also being watched closely because of wider developments across Europe. Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland has recently made significant gains in important state elections, while France is heading towards another presidential contest in which Marine Le Pen remains a major political force. Against this broader European backdrop, Sweden’s election could become another important indicator of the continuing strength of nationalist and right-wing politics across the continent.

For Swedish voters, however, domestic concerns remain at the centre of the campaign. Healthcare, law and order, immigration and the national economy are among the most important issues influencing voters. Political leaders have spent the final days of the campaign attempting to persuade undecided voters, with the last major televised debate taking place on Friday night.

Record levels of early voting are also expected, adding another element of uncertainty to an already unpredictable election. With the main blocs separated by almost nothing in the polls, turnout and the final performance of smaller parties could determine whether Sweden moves towards another centre-right government or returns Andersson and the Social Democrats to power.

Even after votes are counted on Sunday night, the formation of a government may not be immediate. Given the fragmented nature of Sweden’s parliament and the competing interests among the parties, negotiations could continue for weeks or potentially months.

The central question is therefore not simply which party wins the largest number of votes, but which political combination can secure sufficient parliamentary support to govern. If Kristersson’s right-wing bloc prevails, the inclusion of Sweden Democrats ministers would represent a historic step for the nationalist party and potentially mark a significant transformation in Swedish politics.

If Andersson’s centre-left alliance manages to hold its narrow advantage, she could return as prime minister, but she would still face pressure over crime, immigration, economic concerns and the difficult task of maintaining parliamentary support.

With only 0.3 percentage points separating the two blocs in the latest poll, Sweden’s election has become a contest in which every vote could carry extraordinary political weight. The result could influence not only the country’s domestic policies but also how Sweden presents itself internationally on questions of democracy, immigration, civil rights and human rights.