UK Weather: Rain Expected Above Average This Autumn, but Drought Likely to Persist

Published: 08 September ‘2025. The English Chronicle Desk

The United Kingdom is set to face an unsettled autumn, with meteorologists forecasting above-average rainfall for much of the country. The Met Office has indicated a higher likelihood of a strong jet stream and westerly winds in the long-range outlook, which could bring wet, windy, and potentially stormy conditions. Western and northern regions are expected to bear the brunt of this weather, while eastern and southern areas may see drier conditions than the national average.

Despite the prospect of heavy rainfall, experts caution that the showers alone are unlikely to ease the ongoing drought affecting five areas of England. Will Lang, chief meteorologist at the Met Office, explained, “The current forecast for unsettled weather is unlikely to be enough to reverse the effects of drought over the next few weeks and during the autumn, especially so in England. We’re going to need more rain than that.” He added that it is too early to predict whether conditions might change later in the season or into winter.

This means some regions could experience a paradoxical combination of drought and flooding simultaneously, reflecting broader patterns linked to a changing climate. The UK’s recent summer ended abruptly, following the hottest season on record, with heavy rainfall affecting several areas. Historical precedent reinforces this unpredictability: last September brought intense downpours to the Midlands, while Storm Bert in November 2024 forced a major incident in Wales.

The government’s Floods Resilience Taskforce, which includes floods minister Emma Hardy, the emergency services, and the Environment Agency, will convene to discuss preparations for the season ahead. Established last year to address increasingly extreme weather, the taskforce is urging the public to sign up for flood warnings, avoid driving through floodwaters, and take steps to protect their homes.

According to the Environment Agency, approximately 6.3 million properties in England are at risk of flooding, whether from rivers, the sea, or flash floods. The government has pledged a record £2.65 billion over two years to protect an additional 52,000 properties. Officials report that 25,000 homes are expected to be safeguarded this financial year, with 3,800 already completed. Critical flood defences are currently at 92.7% of the required standard, a slight improvement on last September’s 92.6%, though still below the optimum 98% level.

Ms Hardy emphasized the government’s commitment to flood protection, stating, “We are investing billions to build new flood defences, which will protect homes and businesses across the country.”

In addition to rainfall, the UK is expected to experience a warmer-than-average autumn. Mr Lang noted that this is largely a reflection of climate change, highlighting the significant shifts in weather patterns observed over the past 30 years. The recent launch of the new storm-naming season is also intended to raise public awareness of weather-related risks and encourage proactive preparation.

As the country heads into the autumn months, authorities and residents alike are urged to remain vigilant, balancing preparations for potential floods while recognising that current drought conditions are unlikely to be alleviated in the immediate term.