Trump Eyes Major Belarus Fertiliser Deal Amid Canada Trade

Published: 22 September 2026. The English Chronicle Desk. The English Chronicle Online.

US President Donald Trump has said Washington is working on what he described as a “massive” deal to purchase potash fertiliser from Belarus, potentially marking a significant shift in the United States’ traditional supply arrangements as the Trump administration intensifies its trade dispute with Canada.

Trump announced the proposed deal on Monday, saying that Belarusian potash could be purchased at a substantially lower price than fertiliser currently sourced from Canada. He presented the proposal as potentially beneficial to American farmers and ranchers, who have faced higher input costs in recent years.

The announcement is notable because Canada has historically been the United States’ dominant supplier of potash, while Belarus is a close ally of Russia and has faced extensive Western sanctions over its domestic political crackdown and support for Moscow during the war in Ukraine.

“The United States is working on a massive deal with respect to the purchase of Potash from Belarus,” Trump said in his announcement, adding that the proposed pricing would be considerably below what the United States is currently paying Canada.

Potash is a group of potassium-containing salts that are widely used in the production of agricultural fertiliser. Potassium is one of the three major nutrients required for crop growth, alongside nitrogen and phosphorus, making potash an important commodity for large-scale agriculture.

The United States relies heavily on imports to meet its potash requirements. According to US Geological Survey figures cited in the report, Canada accounted for 79% of US potash imports in 2024. Russia supplied about 11%, while Belarus accounted for approximately 4%.

A major expansion of purchases from Belarus could therefore alter the balance of the US fertiliser supply chain, although the scale and timing of any proposed agreement remain unclear.

Trump’s announcement came as relations between Washington and Ottawa have become increasingly strained over trade. Canada has long been one of the United States’ closest economic partners and a major source of agricultural and industrial commodities. Potash has been particularly important because of Canada’s position as the leading supplier to the US market.

The possibility of obtaining cheaper fertiliser from Belarus could provide American agricultural producers with another source of supply at a time when farmers are closely watching production expenses. Fertiliser represents a significant cost for many agricultural operations, meaning changes in potash prices can affect decisions about planting, crop selection and overall profitability.

The global fertiliser market has already experienced substantial disruption since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Russia and Belarus are among the world’s major producers of potash and other agricultural inputs, while sanctions and restrictions have complicated international trade involving both countries.

Before the war, fertiliser markets were already highly interconnected. The disruption caused by sanctions, logistical challenges and changing trade patterns contributed to price volatility. American farmers, like producers elsewhere, have had to contend with fluctuations in fertiliser and energy costs.

Belarus has been particularly affected by Western sanctions. President Alexander Lukashenko’s government has faced international criticism over its treatment of political opponents and its response to mass protests following the disputed 2020 presidential election.

Lukashenko has remained in power since 1994. Following the 2020 election, large demonstrations took place across Belarus, and Western governments subsequently imposed sanctions on senior officials and businesses associated with the government.

Belarus also became more isolated from Western governments after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Moscow used Belarusian territory as part of its military operations, prompting additional sanctions against Minsk.

Despite those tensions, the Trump administration has recently pursued diplomatic engagement with Belarus. The latest development follows the release of political prisoners by the Belarusian authorities and the easing of some US sanctions.

Last week, Belarus released 25 political prisoners as Washington lifted sanctions on two Belarusian companies. The move was viewed as part of a broader effort to improve communication between the United States and the Belarusian government.

The proposed potash agreement could represent another step in that changing relationship, although it remains unclear whether the discussions will result in a completed commercial deal.

The prospect has already attracted criticism from Belarus’s opposition movement. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the country’s exiled opposition leader, warned on Monday that a commercial agreement with Lukashenko’s government could carry significant risks.

Tsikhanouskaya argued that revenue generated from potash exports could support the Belarusian government and, in her view, contribute to repression and assistance for Russia’s war effort. She said she believed the United States was aware of Lukashenko’s record.

Her comments highlight the broader challenge facing Washington as it seeks to balance economic interests with foreign-policy considerations. A decision to increase imports from Belarus could offer American buyers access to additional fertiliser supplies, but it could also generate debate over sanctions policy and relations with Minsk and Moscow.

For American farmers, the immediate issue is likely to be price and supply. If Belarus can provide potash at a lower cost, increased competition among suppliers could potentially affect fertiliser prices. However, the final impact would depend on the terms of any agreement, the volume of imports, transportation costs and the continued operation of sanctions and other trade restrictions.

The proposed arrangement would also need to be considered within the wider context of US agricultural policy. Farmers have faced several years of uncertainty linked to commodity prices, input costs, weather conditions and international trade. Fertiliser prices are especially important because changes can quickly affect the economics of crop production.

At the same time, Canada’s role in the US agricultural supply chain means that a substantial shift in potash purchases could have implications beyond fertiliser markets. The proposal comes amid a broader trade dispute between Washington and Ottawa, making the issue part of a much larger economic relationship.

Canada has traditionally benefited from its proximity to the US market and extensive cross-border trade. Potash shipments from Canada can reach American agricultural regions relatively efficiently, while alternative suppliers may face longer transport routes and different logistical requirements.

Belarus’s geographical position and political relationship with Russia could also complicate any attempt to significantly increase its share of the American market. Even if Washington and Minsk reach an agreement, questions surrounding sanctions, financial transactions, transportation and compliance would remain relevant.

The Trump administration’s willingness to engage with Belarus nevertheless represents a notable shift from the period of heightened diplomatic pressure that followed the 2020 political crisis and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The proposed fertiliser deal also illustrates how trade policy and geopolitics can become closely connected. A commodity that is essential to American agriculture has become part of a broader debate involving Canada, Belarus, Russia, Ukraine and US sanctions policy.

For now, Trump’s announcement describes an agreement being pursued rather than a completed transaction. The precise value, volume, delivery arrangements and legal framework of the proposed deal have not been publicly detailed.

Whether the United States ultimately expands its purchases of Belarusian potash will depend on negotiations and the administration’s broader approach to sanctions and trade. Any agreement could have implications for American farmers, Canada’s export position and Washington’s evolving relationship with Minsk.

The announcement therefore places fertiliser at the centre of a wider economic and diplomatic story, demonstrating how agricultural supply chains can be affected by trade disputes and international political developments.