Brazil heads for runoff as Bolsonaro leads Lula

Published: 05 October 2026. The English Chronicle Desk. The English Chronicle Online.

Brazil’s presidential election is heading for a decisive second round after far-right candidate Flávio Bolsonaro emerged ahead of incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, delivering a stronger-than-expected performance for the political movement associated with former president Jair Bolsonaro. With almost all votes counted, Flávio Bolsonaro secured about 47% of the vote, while Lula received approximately 45.1%, leaving neither candidate with the majority required to win the presidency outright.

The result sets up a closely fought runoff on 25 October, when Brazilian voters will choose between the 45-year-old Bolsonaro and the 80-year-old Lula. Although Bolsonaro finished ahead in the first round, the relatively narrow margin means the contest remains open, particularly as votes from other conservative candidates are expected to become increasingly important.

Bolsonaro received roughly 56.1 million votes compared with about 53.8 million for Lula. His performance was particularly significant because opinion polling had not fully anticipated the strength of the right-wing vote. The result demonstrated that the political movement built around the Bolsonaro family remains a powerful force in Brazil despite the controversies and legal difficulties surrounding the former president.

The second round is likely to become a direct ideological confrontation between the left and right, with both campaigns seeking to persuade voters who supported smaller parties and candidates. Two other right-wing candidates, Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos, attracted around 2.1% and 2.2% respectively. Their supporters could play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the runoff, particularly if conservative voters unite behind Bolsonaro in an effort to remove Lula from office.

The strength of the Bolsonaro movement was also visible beyond the presidential contest. Several politicians associated with the former president performed strongly in congressional and state-level elections. Carlos Bolsonaro, one of Jair Bolsonaro’s sons, and Michelle Bolsonaro won Senate seats, while another son, Jair Renan Bolsonaro, was elected to the lower house.

Tarcísio de Freitas, a former infrastructure minister under Jair Bolsonaro and an influential figure on the Brazilian right, was also re-elected governor of São Paulo, the country’s most populous and economically significant state. The Senate results were particularly notable, with 34 of the 54 senators elected coming from the right or far right.

The congressional gains could give Bolsonaro’s political camp considerable influence if Flávio Bolsonaro wins the presidency. His supporters have long sought greater political leverage over Brazil’s powerful institutions, including the Supreme Court. The Senate has a central constitutional role in impeachment proceedings involving Supreme Court justices, making control of the chamber especially important to the Bolsonaro movement.

Speaking to supporters in Brasília after the result became clear, Flávio Bolsonaro described the outcome as evidence that a political era associated with Lula and the Workers’ Party was coming to an end. He argued that while Lula had spent decades pursuing political power, his own campaign was focused on what he described as the future of Brazil.

Lula, meanwhile, acknowledged that the result was not what his campaign had expected but sought to project confidence ahead of the second round. Speaking to supporters in São Paulo, he described the election as a lesson in Brazilian democracy and admitted that he had believed he could win outright in the first round.

The president immediately turned his attention toward the campaign ahead. Lula argued that the runoff would give voters a clearer choice because only two candidates would remain. He also indicated that his campaign would focus heavily on Bolsonaro’s political record and controversies, seeking to persuade voters that a return of the Bolsonaro family to the presidency would represent a dangerous direction for the country.

The contest carries particular significance because Jair Bolsonaro remains a deeply polarising figure in Brazilian politics. The former president is serving a lengthy prison sentence after being convicted over his involvement in efforts to undermine the democratic process and challenge the outcome of the 2022 presidential election, which Lula won.

Flávio Bolsonaro has presented his presidential campaign in part as an opportunity to challenge what his family considers political persecution. His supporters hope that a victory would create new political circumstances that could eventually benefit the former president.

Lula’s allies, however, have portrayed the election as a crucial defence of Brazil’s democratic institutions. They have repeatedly highlighted the events that followed the 2022 election, when Bolsonaro supporters stormed government buildings in Brasília in an attempt to overturn Lula’s victory.

The first-round result nevertheless showed that concerns over Bolsonaro’s political legacy have not prevented a large portion of the electorate from supporting his son. For some voters, the election appears to have been driven less by personal enthusiasm for Flávio Bolsonaro than by dissatisfaction with Lula and his government.

Economic pressures are expected to play a major role in the second round. The cost of living, household finances and concerns over urban crime have contributed to public frustration, giving Bolsonaro an opportunity to portray the election as a choice between the continuation of Lula’s government and a political change under the Bolsonaro camp.

One Bolsonaro supporter in Rio de Janeiro reflected that sentiment, saying his vote was motivated more by a desire to remove Lula from power than by personal enthusiasm for Flávio Bolsonaro. Such voters could become particularly important in the runoff because both candidates will need to expand their support beyond their traditional political bases.

The election has also acquired an international dimension. US President Donald Trump became an increasingly prominent issue during the campaign, with Lula accusing the American president of attempting to influence the Brazilian election in favour of Bolsonaro. Lula has argued that closer US involvement could threaten Brazil’s sovereignty and natural resources.

Flávio Bolsonaro, by contrast, has indicated that he would seek a closer relationship with Trump. A Bolsonaro victory would therefore have implications beyond Brazil’s borders, potentially strengthening a growing network of conservative and pro-Trump governments across Latin America.

Brazil’s election is taking place against the backdrop of a wider political transformation across the region. Conservative and right-wing movements have gained ground in several Latin American countries, while voters have increasingly expressed dissatisfaction with established political parties and economic conditions.

For Lula, the second round offers an opportunity to rebuild momentum. The president remains one of Brazil’s most experienced political figures and has previously demonstrated an ability to mobilise working-class voters and build broad electoral coalitions. His campaign is expected to concentrate on economic achievements, social programmes and warnings about the political consequences of a Bolsonaro victory.

For Flávio Bolsonaro, the challenge will be to convert his first-round lead into a majority while maintaining support from the wider conservative electorate. He will need to attract voters who supported other right-wing candidates without alienating more moderate Brazilians who may be uncomfortable with the Bolsonaro family’s confrontational political style.

The mood among supporters of the two camps reflected the uncertainty surrounding the race. In Rio de Janeiro, some Lula supporters who had gathered expecting to celebrate a first-round victory were left visibly disappointed as Bolsonaro’s lead held. On the other side, Bolsonaro supporters celebrated what they regarded as an unexpectedly strong breakthrough.

Brazil’s nearly 159 million voters were also choosing governors, state legislators and members of both houses of Congress, making the election much larger than the presidential contest alone. The results indicate that the political balance of the country could shift significantly even before the next president takes office.

The runoff on 25 October will therefore determine more than simply whether Lula secures another term or whether Flávio Bolsonaro becomes the next member of the Bolsonaro family to occupy the presidency. It will also provide a major test of Brazil’s political direction, the strength of the country’s democratic institutions and the future influence of the competing left-wing and far-right movements.

With the first round now concluded, both campaigns face a short and intense period of political mobilisation. Lula will seek to convince undecided and moderate voters that his leadership offers stability and democratic continuity. Bolsonaro will attempt to transform his first-round advantage into a broader coalition capable of defeating the incumbent.

The final result remains uncertain. What is already clear, however, is that Brazil has entered one of the most consequential presidential runoffs in its recent political history, with millions of voters preparing to make a final choice between two sharply contrasting visions for the country’s future.