Australia’s Indigenous Population Before Colonisation Reassessed

Published: 15 September 2026. The English Chronicle Desk. The English Chronicle Online.

Australia’s Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population before European colonisation may have been dramatically larger than previously estimated, according to new research that suggests the demographic consequences of colonisation were far more devastating than earlier historical assessments indicated.

A new study by researchers from the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Indigenous and Environmental Histories and Futures has estimated that around 2.2 million Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people may have been living across Australia when the First Fleet arrived in 1788. The estimate is substantially higher than the long-standing figure of roughly 250,000 people that has been used in many earlier accounts of Australia’s pre-colonial population.

The research, published in the peer-reviewed journal Nature Human Behaviour, seeks to reconstruct Australia’s Indigenous population before the profound disruptions caused by European settlement. Researchers say earlier population estimates were affected by the absence of systematic censuses, widespread disease, frontier violence, dispossession and other consequences of colonisation.

The new findings indicate that the number of Indigenous Australians who died as a consequence of colonisation was also substantially higher than previously understood. The researchers estimate approximately 2.06 million excess deaths between 1788 and 1861. On the basis of the new population model, the Indigenous population was reduced to approximately 7 per cent of its original size during the period examined.

Researchers described the scale of the demographic decline as a catastrophe rather than a marginal consequence of European settlement. The findings have implications for historical understanding, reconciliation efforts and contemporary discussions about the long-term effects of colonisation on Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities.

The study was produced by an Australian research team using several independent methods to estimate the population that existed before European settlement. Rather than relying solely on historical observations recorded by colonial officials, researchers combined archaeological, environmental and genetic evidence to reconstruct population levels.

One approach involved examining archaeological evidence to determine the number of people likely to have occupied different areas at particular points in history. Researchers also assessed climate conditions and the productivity of Australia’s landscapes to estimate how many people the continent could have supported. Genetic information was another important component, allowing researchers to examine population history using known patterns of DNA mutation.

Historical and ethnographic estimates were also reviewed, although the research team did not depend exclusively on those sources because many were produced after European settlement had already caused substantial disruption to Indigenous societies.

Earlier estimates varied considerably. Governor Arthur Phillip, for example, made an early estimate of the population of the Gadigal people of the Eora nation at around 1,500. Such local observations, however, could not provide a reliable picture of the population across the entire continent.

A major continent-wide estimate later came from social anthropologist Alfred Radcliffe-Brown, who placed Australia’s Indigenous population at between 250,000 and 300,000. Researchers have subsequently pointed out that this figure was likely an underestimate because Radcliffe-Brown’s observations were largely based on conditions after colonisation had already begun affecting Indigenous communities.

Other researchers later produced significantly higher estimates. Economic historian Noel Butlin initially estimated the population at approximately 900,000 in 1983 and subsequently raised his estimate to between 1.1 million and 1.3 million. Archaeologists John Mulvaney and J. Peter White argued in 1987 that the population was more likely to have been around 750,000.

The latest modelling goes substantially further, placing the pre-colonisation population at approximately 2.2 million.

The difference between the historical estimates and the new figure is important because population size affects how historians assess the consequences of colonisation. A much larger starting population means that the scale of deaths associated with disease, violence, displacement and food insecurity must also have been considerably greater.

Disease was one of the major factors. Smallpox outbreaks had devastating consequences for Indigenous communities, alongside epidemics involving measles, influenza, tuberculosis, typhoid and other illnesses.

Research cited by the study’s authors has previously suggested that a smallpox outbreak in 1789 alone may have killed as many as 220,000 Aboriginal people. Other outbreaks occurred subsequently, adding to the demographic devastation.

The researchers also examined the impact of frontier violence and massacres. Professor Corey Bradshaw, a global ecology professor at Flinders University and a co-author of the research, argued that existing databases documenting massacres could substantially underestimate the actual scale of violence.

The difficulty of establishing an accurate historical record is partly linked to the circumstances in which frontier violence occurred. Colonial settlers and others involved in conflicts over land did not necessarily create detailed records of the number of Indigenous people killed.

Dispossession and malnutrition also contributed to population decline. As Indigenous communities lost access to traditional lands and resources, their ability to maintain established food systems and social structures was severely disrupted.

The history of colonisation was also shaped by the legal concept of terra nullius, under which Australia was treated as land belonging to no one. That doctrine was eventually overturned by the High Court of Australia’s Mabo decision, which recognised the existence of Indigenous rights to land and acknowledged that First Nations peoples had inhabited Australia for tens of thousands of years.

The new research also places modern population statistics in a broader historical context. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people were not properly counted in Australia’s national census until after the 1967 referendum. In 1971, the first census following that referendum recorded 115,953 people identifying as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander.

By the 2021 census, the number had risen to 812,728. Following post-census adjustments, the Australian Bureau of Statistics revised the figure upwards to 983,257.

Researchers say these modern figures demonstrate not only the enormous demographic decline following colonisation but also the subsequent survival and recovery of Indigenous communities.

Distinguished professor Larissa Behrendt, a Euahleyai/Gamillaroi woman and chair of the research centre’s advisory committee, described the findings as evidence of a demographic catastrophe at the centre of Australia’s national history.

She argued that understanding the scale of population loss is important for truth-telling and reconciliation. The researchers similarly emphasised that the historical evidence should contribute to policymaking and efforts to address the effects of intergenerational trauma.

Professor Lynette Russell of the Monash University Indigenous Studies Centre and the research centre said the findings provide a clearer understanding of the consequences of colonisation and could help inform future policies involving Indigenous Australians.

At the same time, the researchers stressed that the history should not be viewed solely through the lens of destruction. Associate Professor Alan Williams of James Cook University, the study’s lead author, said the findings also demonstrated the remarkable survival, resilience and recovery of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples during the past century.

That resilience is an important part of the historical picture. Despite population losses, dispossession and prolonged social disruption, Indigenous cultures, languages, traditions and community connections survived and continue to play a significant role in Australian society.

For Indigenous leaders and scholars, the research therefore has significance beyond the question of historical population numbers. Establishing a more accurate picture of Australia’s pre-colonial population can influence how the country’s history is taught, how the consequences of colonisation are understood and how reconciliation is approached.

The findings may also contribute to continuing debates over Australia’s relationship with its First Nations peoples. Questions about land, historical recognition, cultural preservation and the social consequences of intergenerational trauma remain important parts of national discussion.

The researchers argue that Australia should continue prioritising reconciliation, engagement and policymaking alongside Indigenous communities. They also emphasise the importance of recognising the richness of Indigenous cultures that survived the enormous demographic and social upheaval associated with colonisation.

The new estimate of 2.2 million people before 1788 consequently represents more than a revision to a historical statistic. It changes the scale through which the demographic consequences of colonisation are understood and highlights the extent of the disruption experienced by Australia’s First Nations peoples.

The research ultimately presents two interconnected aspects of Australian history: the extraordinary scale of population loss following European settlement and the equally extraordinary survival of Indigenous peoples and cultures. For researchers and Indigenous scholars, acknowledging both realities is essential to developing a more accurate understanding of Australia’s past and its continuing impact on the present.