Ten US Midterm Races That Could Defy Expectations

Published: 13 October 2026. The English Chronicle Desk. The English Chronicle Online

The 2026 US midterm elections are increasingly shaping up as a difficult contest for Republicans, with Democrats holding a significant advantage in many national polling projections. Yet beyond the heavily publicised races attracting the largest crowds, campaign spending and media attention, a number of less prominent contests could produce important surprises in November.

These races matter because even relatively small changes in voter behaviour could reshape the balance of power in Congress and influence control of state governments. Republicans are hoping to limit their losses by targeting vulnerable Democratic incumbents and open seats, while Democrats are seeking to capitalise on a political environment that currently appears favourable to them.

Mid-decade redistricting in several Republican-controlled states has also changed the electoral landscape, creating new challenges for some Democratic incumbents while giving Republicans opportunities in districts that previously appeared safer for the opposition.

One of the most closely watched Senate contests is unfolding in New Hampshire, where Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen’s retirement has created an open seat. Despite the broader Democratic advantage, election analysts regard the contest as highly competitive.

Republican John Sununu brings an unusually strong political background to the race. His father and brother both served as New Hampshire governors, while Sununu himself previously represented the state in the US Senate before losing his seat to Shaheen in 2008.

Democrats have nominated Congressman Chris Pappas, who has represented the state since 2019 and became the first openly gay man to serve New Hampshire in Congress. The race is particularly difficult to predict because the state has a history of ticket splitting. Republicans control the governor’s office and both chambers of the state legislature, while Democrats currently hold both US Senate seats.

Kansas presents an even more ambitious Democratic challenge. The state has not elected a Democrat to the US Senate since 1932, making any Democratic victory historically difficult. Nevertheless, Adam Hamilton, a pastor and founder of one of the largest Methodist congregations in the United States, has emerged as a credible challenger to Republican Senator Roger Marshall.

Marshall has faced political difficulties following scrutiny of his medical practice and billing disputes involving patients. The controversy has given Democrats an opportunity to argue that voters should reconsider the incumbent despite Kansas’s strong Republican leanings.

The Minnesota Senate contest is another race that could become significantly more competitive than expected. Democratic Senator Tina Smith’s retirement has left an open seat, with Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan representing the Democratic Party.

Her Republican opponent, Michele Tafoya, is a former NFL sideline reporter who has developed a strong profile among conservative voters. Tafoya has demonstrated significant fundraising strength and has taken positions on abortion that could make her more competitive with moderate voters.

Minnesota generally leans Democratic in federal elections, but political controversies surrounding Governor Tim Walz’s administration, including scandals involving state public programmes, could complicate the Democratic campaign.

Florida’s 13th Congressional District is another contest drawing increasing Republican and Democratic attention. Republican Representative Anna Paulina Luna remains favoured in the Gulf Coast district, but Democratic challenger Leela Gray has attracted additional financial support.

Gray, a retired Army brigadier general, is attempting to turn the race into a referendum on Luna’s record. Although Republican-led redistricting has made the district somewhat more conservative, Democrats believe the broader national political environment could give them an opportunity to compete.

In southeastern Wisconsin, Republican Representative Bryan Steil is facing a potentially tougher contest than in previous election cycles. His district leans slightly Republican, and Steil has traditionally performed strongly. However, the national political environment could benefit Democratic challenger Mitchell Berman, a registered nurse seeking to turn the seat blue.

The contest illustrates how even districts that are not considered traditional battlegrounds can become competitive when national political conditions change.

Alabama’s second congressional district presents a particularly difficult challenge for Democratic Representative Shomari Figures. Redistricting has significantly altered the district, making it more favourable to Republicans and removing Figures’ hometown of Mobile from its boundaries.

Republican candidate Rhett Marques enters the contest with a strong structural advantage under the new map. Figures originally won the district in 2024 after Alabama was required to create a new majority-Black congressional district following a major legal battle over voting rights.

The redrawn boundaries have transformed the political dynamics, leaving Figures with the difficult task of defending a district that is considerably less favourable to Democrats than the one he initially won.

In southern New Mexico, Democratic Representative Gabe Vasquez is confronting another serious Republican challenge. The district is politically divided, and Republicans are preparing to spend millions of dollars to support former police officer Greg Cunningham.

Vasquez won the district in 2024 even though Donald Trump narrowly carried it at the presidential level. He had previously captured the seat in 2022 by defeating a Republican incumbent.

That history makes the race especially significant. Democrats must demonstrate that Vasquez can maintain support in a district where Republican voters remain highly motivated and national political trends could work against him.

Texas’s 34th Congressional District has also become more competitive following Republican-led redistricting. Democratic Representative Vicente Gonzalez is defending the South Texas border district against Eric Flores, a veteran and former federal prosecutor who has received Trump’s endorsement.

The new boundaries have made the district more difficult for Gonzalez, who has already faced competitive campaigns in previous versions of the constituency. Republican efforts to consolidate support among border-region voters could make the race one of the more important House contests in Texas.

New Jersey’s seventh congressional district offers Democrats one of their clearest opportunities to defeat a Republican incumbent. Democratic candidate Rebecca Bennett, a former US Navy helicopter pilot, is challenging Representative Tom Kean Jr in a district that has shifted between presidential parties in recent elections.

The constituency backed Joe Biden in 2020 before supporting Donald Trump in 2024, making it an important test of whether the district is becoming a genuine swing seat.

Kean has also faced political controversy after being absent from Congress for an extended period. He later disclosed that he had received treatment for depression, adding a personal dimension to a campaign already being shaped by broader questions about representation and leadership.

The final race attracting attention is the Nevada governor’s contest, where Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford is challenging Republican Governor Joe Lombardo.

Lombardo, a former Clark County sheriff, won the governorship in 2022 after defeating an incumbent Democrat. He now faces a political environment in which Democrats control both chambers of the state legislature.

A Ford victory would therefore give Democrats complete control of Nevada’s state government, creating a political trifecta that could significantly influence policy in the state.

The Nevada contest also reflects the broader uncertainty surrounding the 2026 midterms. While Democrats currently hold a strong national advantage, individual races are being shaped by local political histories, candidate quality, redistricting, fundraising and voter concerns that cannot always be captured by national polling.

For Republicans, these contests represent opportunities to prevent what could otherwise become a difficult election cycle. Holding vulnerable seats, winning newly competitive districts and taking advantage of favourable redistricting could help the party limit Democratic gains.

For Democrats, the races provide an opportunity to expand their congressional influence and strengthen their position in states where voters remain divided.

The outcome of the midterms will ultimately be determined by voters in hundreds of individual contests across the country. The biggest races may attract the greatest attention, but these lower-profile battles could prove just as consequential.

If several of the closely fought contests break in the same direction, they could determine control of Congress or state governments. That is why races from New Hampshire and Kansas to New Mexico, Texas and Nevada are likely to deserve considerably more attention as election day approaches.

The 2026 midterms are therefore not simply a national referendum on the parties. They are also a collection of highly localised political battles, many of which could produce results that defy expectations and reshape America’s political landscape for the years ahead.