Holborn and St Pancras Vote Tests Labour and Greens

Published: 08 October 2026. The English Chronicle Desk. The English Chronicle Online

Voting has opened in the high-stakes Holborn and St Pancras by-election, with the contest expected to provide an important test of the political strength of Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s Labour government and the ability of the Green party to continue taking support from voters on the left.

The north London constituency was previously represented by Keir Starmer, who held the seat for Labour before stepping down as an MP following his resignation as prime minister. Under normal circumstances, Holborn and St Pancras would be regarded as a safe Labour constituency, but the by-election has attracted considerable attention because of the Greens’ recent electoral gains and the unusually energetic campaign mounted by their leader in England and Wales, Zack Polanski.

The result could offer an early indication of whether Labour has succeeded in stabilising its support under Burnham or whether the party remains vulnerable to challenges from the Greens in inner-city areas. For the Greens, meanwhile, the election represents an opportunity to demonstrate that their breakthrough victories earlier in the year were not isolated events.

Starmer won the constituency at the 2024 general election with a majority of about 11,500 votes. That was a significant reduction from the nearly 28,000-vote majority he secured in 2019, with the Greens and a leftwing independent candidate mounting strong challenges.

The independent candidate who competed against Starmer in 2024 is not standing this time and has endorsed Polanski, potentially strengthening the Green challenge. Polanski has sought to build on that support by running an intensive campaign involving large numbers of activists going door to door across the constituency.

The campaign strategy resembles the Greens’ approach in the Gorton and Denton by-election in February, when the party overturned a substantially larger Labour majority and secured a dramatic victory. That result was followed by a period in which the Greens appeared to be gaining momentum nationally, briefly moving ahead of Labour in one YouGov poll.

At their peak, the Greens reached 21% in that polling series. More recent polling, however, has shown the party at about 11%, placing it well behind Labour. The shift has changed the expectations surrounding the Holborn and St Pancras contest and made the result more difficult for the Greens to predict.

The election is taking place against the backdrop of a changing political landscape under Burnham, who became prime minister in July after succeeding Starmer. Burnham has sought to give Labour a more ambitious and left-leaning political direction, including proposals intended to strengthen the party’s relationship with voters who had become dissatisfied with its previous approach.

His performance at Labour’s annual conference last month was seen as an important attempt to establish the priorities of his government and demonstrate that Labour could offer a distinct political alternative while maintaining broad electoral appeal.

That approach will now face a significant test in a constituency where the Greens believe there is fertile ground for their message.

Holborn and St Pancras has a relatively young and diverse electorate. Around 48% of constituents are aged between 18 and 34, while approximately 45% were born outside the UK. The area also contains a large student population, characteristics that could make some voters receptive to Green positions on housing, climate policy and public services.

Housing and the protection of local green spaces have emerged as important issues during the campaign. Concerns surrounding redevelopment and the loss of open areas have provided the Greens with opportunities to argue that Labour should take a stronger position on environmental protection and local planning.

Polanski has also focused heavily on issues including rent controls and public ownership of water companies. His campaign has presented the by-election as an opportunity for voters to put pressure on Labour rather than simply choosing between competing governing alternatives.

The Green leader has argued that the constituency already has Labour representation at several levels of government, pointing to the Labour government, Labour-controlled local government and the Labour mayoral leadership in London. He has urged voters who want Labour to adopt more ambitious policies to use their vote to elect a Green MP.

For Labour, the candidate is Sagal Abdi-Wali, the 42-year-old leader of Camden council. Her personal story has been central to the party’s campaign.

Abdi-Wali arrived in London from Somalia in the early 1990s after fleeing war with her mother and four brothers. She arrived without speaking English, while her mother had trained as a lawyer in Somalia. Abdi-Wali subsequently established a political career in Camden and became leader of the local council.

Burnham has highlighted that background in his appeal to voters, portraying Abdi-Wali as someone whose personal experience is closely connected to the communities she now hopes to represent in parliament.

The Labour campaign has emphasised her local roots and record in Camden, arguing that she understands the challenges facing residents and has a direct connection with the constituency.

For Labour, retaining the seat would provide a valuable political boost. A comfortable victory would strengthen the argument that Burnham has begun to rebuild the party’s support in areas where it had faced growing competition from the Greens.

A narrow result, however, could raise questions about Labour’s ability to defend inner-city constituencies. The party has already seen the Greens make gains in several London councils during the May local elections, increasing concern among Labour figures that the environmental party could become a more persistent electoral threat.

The Greens face their own challenges. Polanski’s energetic campaign has generated significant attention, but the party has experienced internal controversy following its recent annual conference.

Green members voted to adopt a policy equating Zionism with racism and calling for Israel to be replaced by a single Palestinian state. The decision triggered condemnation and divisions within the party, with four of its five MPs publicly opposing the policy.

Some councillors and other members have also distanced themselves from the decision, while others have left the party. The controversy has created an additional challenge for Polanski at a time when he is trying to keep the campaign focused on local issues and electoral momentum.

Polanski has also faced criticism over his own response to the conference vote. He left the conference before the motion was decided so that he could continue campaigning in Holborn and St Pancras and has faced questions over whether he personally supported the policy.

The issue has complicated the Greens’ efforts to present a unified political message. While the party’s internal system allows members to determine policy through direct votes, disagreements among elected representatives have raised questions about leadership and political discipline.

Polanski has nevertheless maintained that the race is close and has urged voters to support the Greens as a means of putting pressure on Labour.

The election therefore carries significance beyond the constituency itself. For Burnham, a strong Labour performance could help establish confidence in his leadership and demonstrate that the party can withstand challenges from its left flank.

For Polanski, a Green victory or a substantial reduction in Labour’s majority would provide evidence that the party can continue building on its earlier electoral breakthrough. Even without winning, a strong Green performance could signal that Labour will need to devote more resources to defending urban seats in future elections.

The result will also be closely watched because of the constituency’s history. Starmer’s large majorities once made the seat appear highly secure for Labour, but the decline in his winning margin by 2024 demonstrated that the political foundations were already shifting.

The by-election now offers voters the opportunity to decide whether that shift has continued or whether Labour can re-establish its traditional dominance.

With the polls open, both parties are seeking to mobilise supporters who may ultimately determine the outcome. Turnout will be particularly important in a constituency with a large population of younger voters, who can be less consistent in participating in elections.

The final result will depend not only on which party has the strongest campaign but also on whether voters who supported Labour previously remain loyal, whether Green supporters turn out in sufficient numbers and whether other candidates can retain enough support to influence the final balance.

Whatever the outcome, Holborn and St Pancras is likely to be viewed as an important snapshot of Britain’s changing political landscape. A Labour victory could strengthen Burnham’s position and suggest that the party’s recent strategic shift is beginning to reconnect with voters. A strong Green performance would indicate that Labour still faces a serious challenge from its left in some of the country’s most politically significant urban constituencies.

The contest is therefore about more than replacing a former prime minister. It has become a test of whether Labour can consolidate its position under a new leader and whether the Greens can turn recent electoral breakthroughs into a lasting challenge to the political establishment.